PEP Stock Report

2-Year Price History

Ockham’s Rating

PEP Revenue

As a value investing shop, we are interested in seeing how PEP’s revenues measure up against past performances. One easily understandable way of doing that is to compare Price to Sales per share levels over a given time frame. Assuming it is available, Ockham prefers to look at ten years of history (for this stock there are 10 years of history available) and we weigh recent years more heavily. This allows us to find weighted average historical high and low Price to Sales ratios, which give us a better idea of the stock’s current underlying value. Using this method, we have established a high range for Price to Sales of 3.06x and the low end of the range at 2.32x.

With respect to these historically rational metrics, notice that the current Price to Sales per share ratio for PEP of 1.94x is well below its normal historic Price to Sales levels. At a price of $56.35, PEP is 28% below where we would expect to see it. Clearly, this stock looks undervalued compared to historical levels, at least on a Price to Sales basis. This will positively affect our analysis because it is rare to find a stock this far below historical norms, and we would expect some price appreciation to bring this metric back towards a more normal range.

PEP Cash Earnings

As the old saying goes, "Cash is King!" However, we prefer to capture a few other items within our analysis to identify "cash earnings". Nevertheless, an analysis of Cash Earnings is absolutely pivotal to assessing a company’s value, and currently PEP is significantly below its historical average multiple of Cash Earnings. Looking at the last 10 years we can get a good understanding of what investors have grown to expect from PEP. For example, PEP’s Cash Earnings ratio per share has fluctuated between 13.34 and 17.74 over this historical timeframe. This range is based upon a proprietary weighted methodology at Ockham, but can clearly show an investor where PEP is with respect to prior business periods.

So with PEP’s current price (latest close of $56.35) and most recent level of Cash Earnings reported, we see significant opportunity from a value perspective. At its current price level, PEP is 16% below its average level of Price to Cash Earnings on a historical basis. This means that investors were willing to pay for a much higher stock price than currently for the same level of Cash in the past, on a relative basis. There are a couple of important things to remember, however. First, value doesn’t exist in a vacuum. So if the market doesn’t recognize this value, even a great disparity in Price to Cash Earnings cannot force an immediate stock price reaction. Second, patience is key when looking at securities that have reached these levels of Price to Cash Earnings versus their historical norms. So be patient with PEP.

PEP Dividends

A positive Ockham rating does not require a company to pay out an inviting dividend or a dividend at all. However, we believe dividends provide a useful measure of a company’s inherent expectations.

Comparable to our analysis of Sales and Cash Earnings per share, we examine dividend yields from PEP against the historic high and low levels over an available data range. Because PEP has an established history of paying a dividend to shareholders, there is value in comparing recent dividends to historical dividends. In PEP’s case, the estimated annual dividend is $1.80 producing a current dividend yield of 3.19%. The highest dividend yield from PEP in recent history was 4.11% while the lowest dividend yield was 1.10%. If you are looking for some “bang for your buck” then a dividend yield of 22.46% above the historical median should be enticing. PEP receives a positive boost in our view because as you know, equity at its core is simply a claim on future dividends.