NASDAQ:NFLX
$53.27
(12/18 8:10PM)
-0.9%
| Open | $53.91 |
Mkt Cap | $2.9 Billion |
| High | $54.01 |
52Wk High | $61.65 |
| Low | $52.95 |
52Wk Low | $28.78 |
| Volume | 1.5 Million |
Avg Vol 10D | 1.1 Million |
Ockham’s Rating/Recommendation Summary
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NFLX Revenue
For a long time, value investors have used the current share price relative to sales per share levels as an important valuation tool. We utilize a historical weighted average methodology that treats recent years more importantly in the calculation. When looking at NFLX through this framework, we can see that our weighted average historical high and low Price to Sales per share ratios over the last 9 years are 2.96x and 1.14x respectively.
Utilizing this range we can see that NFLX’s current Price to Sales per share ratio of 1.92x is somewhat below its historical weighted average by 7%. Given this level of sales per share, we suggest a neutral share price forecast. To the extent there is a further drop in the Price to Sales ratio from current levels, which would occur through some combination of increased sales per share or a decline in share price, we would only become more positive about the Price to Sales ratio outlook.
NFLX Cash Earnings
Looking at NFLX specifically in their Cash Earnings capabilities, Ockham views NFLX as significantly below their historical average multiples of Cash Earnings, as calculated by our proprietary analysis. It is incredibly important to understand that for NFLX, the current level of Cash Earnings compared to its historical levels helps identify where NFLX is in relation to what the investing community was willing to pay for this level of Cash Earnings in the past. With a historical high Cash Earnings per share ratio of 15.37 and a historical low Cash Earnings per share ratio of 5.65, an investor can relate where value becomes optimal.
So what does "significantly below" mean when we talk about Price to Cash Earnings numbers for NFLX? From the Ockham perspective, we are looking specifically at NFLX to see if the market is recognizing the huge disparity between NFLX’s past stock price to Cash Earnings ratio to today’s levels. At a difference of 18% below the average historical Price to Cash Earnings ratio, our view would be quite positive at this point. However, as with all metrics, we need to also take other factors into account when looking at NFLX. While we view better Cash Earnings metrics as very important, if the market is slow to identify this value, or if Cash Earnings were to fall from these levels, we would become more neutral in our stance.
NFLX Dividends
When determining a company’s future prospects for success, Ockham Research sees analysis of dividend payments as a key additional factor. Even though it isn’t imperative for NFLX to shell out a dividend in order to receive a positive rating, it can be helpful to further our analysis. While we do like to see companies with healthy and growing dividends, it is not appropriate for all companies, especially those focused on growth. In this regard, we regard NFLX as neutral because we do not have historical data for this company’s dividends. We will being incorporating this into our analysis as soon as that data is available.
See Who is Talking About News from NFLX on Mad Money
News has broken via the television and viral blogs regarding NFLX, so investors should take an interest in learning what was said.
Our sentiment indicator, provided through the Motley Fool CAPS survey, suggests that investors are neutral overall towards NFLX and think that it will generally perform in-line with the S&P 500. The Ockham valuation currently has a Fairly Valued stance on NFLX because it trades within the price range that we would expect given current market conditions and fundamentals. In comparison to the other stocks that we follow, Netflix, Inc. has seen more discussion in relation to its normal ranking among the group. Be aware that the news sources we track are focusing on this stock more often these days.
“… It’s why the stock has been you know, it’s one of those situations where I think I have to say I like NETFLIX more. Let me revisit coin star soon. …”
Stay Current on NFLX’s News on Squawk On The Street
Netflix, Inc. is one of the thousands of companies that Ockham has news analytics on, and it was recently discussed on Squawk On The Street.
As we analyze the results from RazorWire, one thing we do is rank each stock in terms of amount of news coverage. Recently, NFLX has been less covered in the news compared to the rest of our universe of stocks. After factoring in the current fundamentals versus their historically normal ranges, we have established a Fairly Valued stance on NFLX. Crowd sentiment is neutral from the millions of opinions submitted through Motley Fool CAPS, which suggests most investors on their platform believe Netflix, Inc. will perform just about the same as the index.
“… NETFLIX as well off the open by a 0. 5% or so. Alkerme was a big winner yesterday, and a follow-up today. The company had positive results for one of the key results it’s moving… …”
Check Out Squawk On The Street and News on NFLX
News has broken via the television and viral blogs regarding NFLX, so investors should take an interest in learning what was said.
We noticed recently that in comparison to all other stocks we analyze in the news; NFLX has received less coverage from the financial media in business television and blogs. Netflix, Inc. receives our Fairly Valued rating in our latest report because the current price does not seem out of line with the fundamentals. The Motley Fool CAPS crowd believes this stock will perform generally in line with the benchmark, or in other words the crowd is neutral.
“… NETFLIX down fractionally down this morning, started with a buy over at colin stuart, and then lee rink has updated alkermes. I mentioned it yesterday as a sidable mover. . …”
NFLX News Mentioned on Mad Money Recently
News has broken via the television and viral blogs regarding NFLX, so investors should take an interest in learning what was said.
Reid sold all of his stock. I have him still holding 1.6 million shares as of — yeah, we have to check that. I don’t want to slam reid. Would that be bad because I think that NETFLIX is a winner. All right we’re pinning the tail on the sell-off. We have to stop this. Plenty of bears. 90% of the air time. Give me my 10%. Let this be the nfl of sports and business. >>> coming up next, my interview
“… to stop this. Plenty of bears. 90% of the air time. Give me my 10%. Let this be the nfl of sports and business. >>> coming up next, my interview …”
Mad Money: Get Plugged into NFLX News Regarding The CEO
Staying in touch with the latest management news is one way we are keeping our clients informed. Notice, RazorWire has a news capture related to NFLX’s CEO.
And mike farrell could say all that he wants but that’s fine. I am being told to go to charles in nevada. >> boo-yah, charles. >> caller: jim, I know that you like NETFLIX but it seems that the cfo plans to leverage his balance sheets to buyback stock and the ceo also sold all of his shares in the company. >> NETFLIX you are told me that hastings sold every share? >> caller: yeah. >> are you sure about that? >> caller: well, I just saw it through yahoo!. I’m not — >> because if that’s case we are going to ask. Because that doesn’t sound right. I think that reid’s got a lot of stock there. Let me check. No, I don’t think that reid sold everything. That would shock me. It would change — it would
“… the ceo also sold all of his shares in the company. >> NETFLIX you are told me that hastings sold every share? >> caller: yeah. >> are you sure about that? >> caller: well, I just saw it through yahoo!. I’m not — >> because if that’s case we are going to ask. Because that doesn’t sound right. I think that reid’s got a lot of stock there. Let me check. No, I don’t think that reid sold everything. That would shock me. It would change — it would …”
Undervalued or Overvalued? Fast Money Takes on NFLX’s Valuation
Netflix, Inc. was talked about in relation to their valuation on Fast Money, and you can see what the pundits are saying with RazorWire.
>> media networks where you are seeing the strength. Up 14%. The revenue’s absolutely crushed don’t forget marvel entertainment, a big buy as well and look at NETFLIX as well. Areas of growth that you can point to as well and look at disney, is the valuation a little rich, yeah, it might be a little rich but as you get into 2010 as hey integrate some of that and the opportunity now to go forward with some of those names there’sate love names there that they can use for their film division, that could be very strong dwriefr. >> you don’t like disney, but does this give you a good feeling, if you will, about consumer spending and their willingness to spend on things
“… ion a little rich, yeah, it might be a little rich but as you get into 2010 as hey integrate some of that and the opportunity now to go forward with some of those names there’sate love names there that they can use for their film division, that could be very strong dwriefr. >> you don’t like disney, but does this give you a good feeling, if you will, about consumer spending and their willingness to spend on things …”
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Discussed on CNBC’s Mad Money
Netflix, Inc. is in the news. Find out how this impacts NFLX trading on Ockham Research.
>> caller: yes. >> go ahead, donald. By priceline jumping so high today, what do you think the future is, and do you think it’s a good investment? >> priceline is like NETFLIX. Which also hit a 52-week high this is a cult stock, not unlike green mountain coffee, another cult stock, that’s due to when I say cult, what I mean is that customers love it but the investors, the short sellers bet against it. So you have this incredible up side surprise. The shorts then cover. That’s almost 10%, I believe, 10% of that float is short. I still like it. If I owned it, I would actually hold it. I don’t recommend buying stocks
“… coffee, another cult stock, that’s due to when I say cult, what I mean is that customers love it but the investors, the short sellers bet against it. So you have this incredible up side surprise. The shorts then cover. That’s almost 10%, I believe, 10% of that float is short. I still like it. If I owned it, I would actually hold it. I don’t recommend buying stocks …”
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Discussed on CNBC’s Fast Money
Netflix, Inc. is in the news. Find out how this impacts NFLX trading on Ockham Research.
Haven’t worked that well in the internet sector. >> which tech stock would you recommend? >> the top one would be google and i’d put priceline as the second one. For a short-term trade? >> sure. And third would be amazon. I’d put NETFLIX as fourth. >> are you as excited about akamai as you once wrote? >> i’m still on a strong hold. >> at least you hold with mark mahaney at citi. Thanks very much. Appreciate it. Coming up next mace yis gets retail earnings under way tomorrow but we will have the retail setup for the rest of the miss burlington northern? We’ve got one hidden warren buffett trade you’ll only get in fact, the ceo of the company that’s next. Their hopes are as different their styles as unique for 200 years, businesses of all kinds… Protect themselves today. And prepare their employees visit thehartford.Com to learn more. And with the hartford achieve what’s ahead of you. My mother made the best toffee in the world. It’s delicious.So now we’ve turned her toffee into a business.My goal was to take an ideaand make it happen.I’m janet long and I
“… you as excited about akamai as you once wrote? >> i’m still on a strong hold. >> at least you hold with mark mahaney at citi. Thanks very much. Appreciate it. Coming up next mace yis gets retail earnings under way tomorrow but we will have the retail setup for the rest of the miss burlington northern? We’ve got one hidden warren buffett trade you’ll only get in fact, the ceo of the company that’s next. Their hopes are as different their styles as unique for 200 years, businesses of all kinds… Protect themselves today. And prepare their employees visit thehartford.Com to learn more. And with the hartford achieve what’s ahead of you. My mother made the best toffee in the world. It’s delicious.So now we’ve turned her toffee into a business.My goal was to take an ideaand make it happen.I’m janet long and I …”
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Discussed on CNBC’s Fast Money
Netflix, Inc. is in the news. Find out how this impacts NFLX trading on Ockham Research.
You run up against valuation. At one point does valuation this stock? >> it’s always a concern on this stock. We’re pretty close to peak mutt ip lz on amazon. We’re a small buyer of amazon still a big buyer of google small buyer of amazon. You just went through a depression where there were a couple of clear winners, amazon, priceline, NETFLIX. >> with that said, the valuation on priceline is clearly richer what do you think is left in the tank for priceline? >> it’s growing at 20 times this company just grew its earnings at 16% year over year. Could it go to 20 25 or maybe a little higher? >> you cover expedia as well. What’s wrong with expedia right now relative to priceline? Absolutely astounding. The growth in every single but what about expedia? What’s wrong with them? >> I think you’ve got to say priceline’s got the better management team, they’ve got a better geographic position. It’s a less penetrated market than the u.S. Is. And they’ve got a better brand identification with deep value if you want a real cheap ticket go to priceline. May recession you went to priceline. >> what about yahoo? Another name. Carol bartz was out there today talking about margins saying they have to improve. Ali baba big holding of theirs in china which is growing leaps and bounds, reported okay numbers. Medicate stock go higher. And that will happen. The asian investments need to be liquidated over time and that but they’ve got to show growth. Because investors will say why would I bother with yahoo when I can own google?
“… hrough a depression where there were a couple of clear winners, amazon, priceline, NETFLIX. >> with that said, the valuation on priceline is clearly richer what do you think is left in the tank for priceline? >> it’s growing at 20 times this company just grew its earnings at 16% year over year. Could it go to 20 25 or maybe a little higher? >> you cover expedia as well. What’s wrong with expedia right now relative to priceline? Absolutely astounding. The growth in every single but what about expedia? What’s wrong with them? >> I think you’ve got to say priceline’s got the better management team, they’ve got a better geographic position. It’s a less penetrated market than the u.S. Is. And they’ve got a better brand identification with deep value if you want a real cheap ticket go to priceline. May recession you went to priceline. >> what about yahoo? Another name. Carol bartz was out there today talking about margins saying they have to improve. Ali baba big holding of theirs in china which is growing leaps and bounds, reported okay numbers. Medicate stock go higher. And that will happen. The asian investments need to be liquidated over time and that but they’ve got to show growth. Because investors will say why would I bother with yahoo when I can own google? …”
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Discussed on CNBC’s Street Signs
Netflix, Inc. is in the news. Find out how this impacts NFLX trading on Ockham Research.
That at the top of my show. I think people are kind of mesmerized mesmerized. How could the stock by up 32. People keep thinking this company is going to screw up, but it’s a master — >> look at that chart. >> I do not know why people want to bet against this. You save money using them. They’re very good executer. Reminds me of NETFLIX, another company people bet against. It’s a loved company. It’s interesting because whole foods is a love company and that’s getting hit. I’m wondering if whole foods we shouldn’t revisit as maybe a >> they’re always packed. >> it’s a loved company, but priceline should not have been shorted obviously. It’s been a disaster to short. You had a few so you can pick. >> I have to tell you this fossil said a lot of things. >> the retailer. >> people are willing to pay up for fashion. Then people should you understand the conviction buy list of ralph lauren. But you pay up for art and uggs. Fossil was amazing, this is where you pay up for things that you shouldn’t necessarily have to pay up for. >> jim — >> this is the consumer willing to pay up for status that went away for a year and a half. It’s back. >> and look who is here, steve liesman, early for his segment. He must have something to say. Tonight at 6:00 and 11:00 eastern, much more of jim. Secretary says a strong dollar is important for america but can the government do anything to save the sinking dollar? That must be why steve liesman is here and he must have something special and insightful to say, and he will next.
“… this. You save money using them. They’re very good executer. Reminds me of NETFLIX, another company people bet against. It’s a loved company. It’s interesting because whole foods is a love company and that’s getting hit. I’m wondering if whole foods we shouldn’t revisit as maybe a >> they’re always packed. >> it’s a loved company, but priceline should not have been shorted obviously. It’s been a disaster to short. You had a few so you can pick. >> I have to tell you this fossil said a lot of things. >> the retailer. >> people are willing to pay up for fashion. Then people should you understand the conviction buy list of ralph lauren. But you pay up for art and uggs. Fossil was amazing, this is where you pay up for things that you shouldn’t necessarily have to pay up for. >> jim — >> this is the consumer willing to pay up for status that went away for a year and a half. It’s back. >> and look who is here, steve liesman, early for his segment. He must have something to say. Tonight at 6:00 and 11:00 eastern, much more of jim. Secretary says a strong dollar is important for america but can the government do anything to save the sinking dollar? That must be why steve liesman is here and he must have something special and insightful to say, and he will next. …”