NASDAQ:MORN
$44.67
(8/28 4:00PM)
| Open | $0 |
Mkt Cap | $2.2 Billion |
| High | $0 |
52Wk High | $68.30 |
| Low | $0 |
52Wk Low | $25.78 |
| Volume | 0 |
Avg Vol 10D | 98,100 |
Ockham’s Rating
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MORN Revenue
As a value investing shop, we are interested in seeing how MORN’s revenues measure up against past performances. One easily understandable way of doing that is to compare Price to Sales per share levels over a given time frame. Assuming it is available, Ockham prefers to look at ten years of history (for this stock there are 5 years of history available) and we weigh recent years more heavily. This allows us to find weighted average historical high and low Price to Sales ratios, which give us a better idea of the stock’s current underlying value. Using this method, we have established a high range for Price to Sales of 8.64x and the low end of the range at 4.10x.
With respect to these historically rational metrics, notice that the current Price to Sales per share ratio for MORN of 4.49x is well below its normal historic Price to Sales levels. At a price of $44.67, MORN is 30% below where we would expect to see it. Clearly, this stock looks undervalued compared to historical levels, at least on a Price to Sales basis. This will positively affect our analysis because it is rare to find a stock this far below historical norms, and we would expect some price appreciation to bring this metric back towards a more normal range.
MORN Cash Earnings
As the old saying goes, "Cash is King!" We look at reported Cash Earnings, but the main emphasis of our analysis involves stripping out non-cash events such as depreciation from our cash earnings analysis. This helps us view the cash flows more clearly. Nevertheless, an analysis of Cash Earnings (both reported and otherwise) is absolutely pivotal to assessing a company’s value, and currently MORN is significantly below its historical average multiple of cash earnings as calculated by Ockham. Similar to our analysis of sales per share, Ockham looks at the last 5 years of cash earnings levels for MORN to identify where the current high and low price levels have been historically in relation to profit per share. Again, we utilize a weighted average methodology which relies more heavily on recent years of data. This weighted average framework provides us with an average high Price to Cash Earnings ratio per share of 39.62 and a 19.03 low over the same period.
Now that MORN’s current price is $44.67 and its Price to Cash Earnings ratio is 18.46, we are very positive on its outlook from the cash earnings perspective. In fact, MORN is now trading a full 38% below its average historical Price to Cash Earnings ratio at these profit per share levels. When our clients ask us why MORN has great long term potential, the Cash Earnings levels to current stock is one of our primary reasons. But naturally, now we need for the overall market to recognize this disparity.
MORN Dividends
A strong dividend payment history is looked upon as a favorable characteristic on a company’s future and potentially can receive a positive Ockham rating. That being said, we don’t require dividend payments for company’s whose management has elected to forgo them entirely. While we do like to see companies with healthy and growing dividends, it is not appropriate for all companies, especially those focused on growth. In this regard, we regard MORN as neutral because we do not have historical data for this company’s dividends. We will being incorporating this into our analysis as soon as that data is available.
“…to those who might simply think its stock market is a bit ahead of itself even after its recent correction. Vitaliy Katsenelson, in an article at MORNINGSTAR, beings almost sounding a tad persecuted before he warms up to his theme. that there is more in common between Japan in the late 1980s, when it seemed poised to continue its inexorable rise and China today. And the differences for the most part favor Japan. Katsenelson first quotes Jim …” – MORN on Naked Capitalism
“…to a reconciliation between the insurer and Mr. Greenberg, who resigned as AIG’s top executive in March 2005 amid probes into AIG’s accounting. MORNINGSTAR analyst Bill Bergman said AIG could benefit from Mr. Greenberg’s network of friends and associates with access to capital. In addition, those connections could help AIG with new business opportunities. “Greenberg has a network of people interested in the resolution of AIG,” Mr. Bergman …” – MORN on WSJ Marketbeat
“…Will exist are the ones that exist now. As a result several funds are trading at a premium to their underlying indexes. How did this happen, and is this the death of commodity etfs? Joining us now, dave nordic, he’s the director of research at index publications. Analysis at MORNINGSTAR. Gentlemen, thanks for joining scott, could you give us 20 seconds, explain how did this >> well, the cftc right now is investigating excessive speculation in the commodity and the etf providers are concerned that they’ve got a giant target on their back and that they’re going to be forced to face position limits, which would really inhibit their ability to operate as normal. >> so the funds are spooked that the cftc is going to be essentially investigating them for somehow being involved in something like that? >> something to that effect. >> let me talk to you, dave. Let me put up the united states …” – MORN on Closing Bell
“…I think, after looking at the numbers: Over the past five years iShares Barclays TIPS Bond posted an average annual return of 4.28%, according to MORNINGSTAR. That is slightly better than the 4.14% return on the Pimco Real Return fund’s “D” shares, which investors can purchase through a discount brokerage account. But as always with mutual funds, costs are key. Investors with access to the Pimco funds’ “institutional” shares through a large …” – MORN on Felix Salmon Reuters
“…Treasuries and cash. And the treasuries and cash are moved between the up and down securities based on changes in the case shiller top ten index. It is a pure play on home >> eric, you published a report a couple months ago at MORNINGSTAR talking about the case shiller price indexes, noting that you believe we should be seeing sequential improvement in prices later in the year. Is that actually happening right now? It actually happened for the first time in almost three years last month, and there’s probably some pretty good odds it’s going to happen for the next two as well. It’s easy to predict the past, a little more difficult about the and with case shiller we’re already talking about old news. It’s got a two-month publishing lag and it’s a three-month the data that’s published every month has data that’s old as five months in it. So it’s pretty old use. …” – MORN on Closing Bell
“…For more go to the block, realtycheck.Cnbc.Com. >>> let’s get a take on how the home builder sentiment fits into the greater outlook for the with us stan misucci ceo and president of macro markets. Eric landry the housing analyst over at MORNINGSTAR. Gentlemen, thanks for joining us. Stan-u debuted a way to bet on home price trends a little more than a month ago. This is the up and down indices. The macro market indices. Give us 20 seconds on what’s involved here because this is a fascinating direct play on the >> that’s right. It’s the only direct play on the we launched major metro housing up, symbol umm and major metro house down, symbol dmm, on june the securities are trading every long or inverse position on the change in the s&p, case shiller …” – MORN on Closing Bell
“…Nearly 20%. Russell 1,000 value higher by nearly 7% in that time period. The trend is growth still the place to be? Joining us is robert mcmillan, chairman and portfolio manager of jensen investment management. Bob runs the jensen portfolio, a five-star MORNINGSTAR fund. About to see you, bob. >> good to see you, michelle. >> the way you run your fund you can invest in either growth or value. Are you scared by the run-up in growth stocks or do you still right now? >> we’re not afraid of the run-up in growth stocks, particularly when you look at quality in growth stocks, which is the segment of the market we deal in, those companies that have very existent growth, high-quality balance sheets and good prospects for growing, even in a slow growth economy. Those stocks actually have not appreciated as much as the are now selling at only a slight …” – MORN on Closing Bell
“…Is there even a chance a rally could resume. Or in the words of jack nicholson, what is this is as good as it gets? Joining us onset, portfolio manager of the four-star MORNINGSTAR rated high mark geneva globe fund up 10% this in cleveland, home of the rock rock ‘n roll hall of fame. Joe, president of dawson wealth michelle michelle, start with you. >> where are the markets headed? >> I think there’s still a little bit more room on the I just saw some numbers from one of the economic coming out over the weekend, $72 for earnings for the s&p for 2010. And as I mentioned the last time I was on, at geneva, some of the work we do, $75 to $80 in 2011. …” – MORN on Squawk On The Street
“…Those optimistic comments about restaurants have struggled during the recession but some investors are betting the sector will get a boost when a recovery sets in. Not everyone is convinced, though, that the stocks are a good buy. We’re going to debate the topic with r.J. Hutaby, restaurant analyst at MORNINGSTAR, and harry raidy, ceo of raidy office management. R.J., let me start with you. We’ve seen a lot of these stocks run up pretty dramatically based on the assumption we are going to see an improving economy in the second half and naturally people will eat out more. Is that logic correct, do you think? >> I think that is absolutely we’ve seen a number of stocks particularly in the casual dining space really run up since the beginning of march. I really think the casual space has kind of gotten ahead of itself and right now I think actually the quick service — quick service restaurant space is a much better, more attractive on a valuation basis. …” – MORN on Closing Bell
“…Discourage speculators, but another member, at least one other member of the cftc thinks they need more authority from congress before taking action. Melissa? >> I thought for sure they were going to get it all straightened out. For more on this story we’re joined by the executive director of the industrial energy and scott burns, director of etf analysis for MORNINGSTAR. Paul, let me get this straight. We were blaming the speculators before. Now we’ve shifted and we think it’s the etf’s fault? Are you buying that? >> well, they’re all one and the same. When you’ve got a fund like the u.S. Natural gas fund that currently controls 30% of the natural gas market with 300 million shares, asking the security exchange commission to increase that to 1 billion shares, how much is too much? 30% of the market? 40% of the market?E 50%, 60% of the market? …” – MORN on Closing Bell
“…>> phil lebeau, thanks so much. Joining us now to break down today’s market action is virginia dawson, president and ceo of claremont investment partners and co-manager of the MORNINGSTAR four-star-rated industry leader investment fund. We also have jeff davis cio of lee munder, boston-based investment firm that managed $4 billion in assets. Thanks to both of you for virginia, i’ll start with you. What do you think of today’s …” – MORN on Closing Bell
“…Large growth and one year performance is exactly the same. >> right. I think what’s happened though is that the valuation gap between superior growth company and a value company is actually narrowed and again, MORNINGSTAR, for example, says that the valuation gap is at historic lows and actually broke historic lows and made new lows in march and rebounded a little bit with the market, but still basically at historic lows. …” – MORN on Fox Business
“…Of 2009 clearly show a growth resurgence and we think it’s the beginning of a new dominant growth value. That’s timing. But what supports the timing is growth stocks right now, according to MORNINGSTAR are showing long-term growth rates that they believe are still almost twice that of value. 13% versus 7% growth rate everyone’s been affected by the recession, but we think when the …” – MORN on Fox Business
“…thread on a $200 million top line beat is somehow supposed to indicate that the recession is over? Does anyone actually buy this garbage aside from MORNINGSTAR "analysts"? h/t Josh] And Chinese full scale intervention has resulted in a 48% jump in car sales. Oh yeah, and new loans have jumped five times since June. Can the world ever operate anymore witout a credit bubble somewhere? (Bloomberg) Miracle Gro for green shoots (Barron’s, h/t …” – MORN on Zero Hedge
“…They were looking for a 38-cent loss. On 26 cents loss excluding that’s the cleaner number, 26 cents excluding items. Let’s bring in min yee, analyst at MORNINGSTAR, for instant reaction to this. Min, what do you think about what do you think about that >> well, I think it’s actually better than expected. …” – MORN on Closing Bell
“…MORNINGSTAR’s John Rekenthaler defends target-date funds from my attack Richard Florida celebrates the past and future decline in homeownership Weird: the iShares California Municipal Bond ETF is up this year, even as the Aggregate Bond Fund is down What is Seaweed Survival, how did it end up being …” – MORN on Felix Salmon Reuters
“…managers were almost begging clients to keep money in their funds as redemptions and “get me out” calls were felt across Wall Street. According to MORNINGSTAR, of the 7,150 actively managed diversified U.S. equity funds in its database, more than half lost to the S&P 500’s return for the past year and three years, with only about 47% beating the index in each case. This underperformance put managers in a defensive position already, with a …” – MORN on WSJ Marketbeat
“…Your money right now? Your cnbc edge with michelle piccard, of the four star MORNINGSTAR high rated geneva fund and doug, managing direct yore of united wealth michelle, good morning. Thanks for being with us. >> good morning, thank you. >> you like tech. >> I do like tech. Tech and health care. …” – MORN on Squawk On The Street
“…Shortfalls will depend on the future course of the economy of course, and the institute not yet projecting a recovery. >> dagen: thank you so much. Peter. Well, at the MORNINGSTAR conference, once talent investigators. Some once talented investors, top management in the world were less than stellar performance. …” – MORN on Fox Business
“…This sort of crusade, I would have taken it easier. It’s fun, i’ve got it on my side and what else can one have it’s amazing and something like the MORNINGSTAR conference, I don’t know how many advisors come up to me and thank me for what I a hundred, had a thousand, a >> dagen: it’s true. People were running up to jack, taking pictures with him. …” – MORN on Fox Business
“…>> a legend, a powerhouse, he’s been called many things, but let’s just call him jack, jack vogel, the founder of vanguard, a giant in investing. He was here at the MORNINGSTAR I caught up with him yesterday and I asked him, ’cause he’s always preached buy and hold, but seems like the worrell is going in the other direction, particularly with some of these …” – MORN on Fox Business
“…Guarantee, it creates a floor by create ago floor, we believe you’ll get more interest until private investors come back into >> thank you very much, sir. >> good stuff, all right, up next, we head back to dagen at the MORNINGSTAR conference. Don’t go anywhere, keep it here, fox business network. …” – MORN on Fox Business
“…The bankruptcy will proceed. >> thanks, adam shapiro, story about that, if it was robert shapiro you’d be living large. All right, when we come back we’ll check with dagen again up in chicago at the MORNINGSTAR investor conference, stick with …” – MORN on Fox Business
“…>> dagen: sarah, thank you, good to see you, thank you for being here. Sarah ketterer with ’causeway international looking at the world for us. Stay with us, everybody, we have more coming up from the MORNINGSTAR conference. I sat down with jack vogel last night, you know the name, and you definitely want to know what and that’s coming up. …” – MORN on Fox Business
“…First pacific advisors and tom atteberry and partner at the firm. Welcome, fellas, just to tell the folks at home you were MORNINGSTAR fixed income manager evident year last year, right. And you capital fund, you do both, best track record of diversified fund over the last …” – MORN on Fox Business
“…The film is called "off shore." limited release today in manhattan and released even further in the month of june. >> thank you very much. >> chris: dagen joins us back right now from the MORNINGSTAR conference out in chicago, >> dagen: i’m sitting with jeff car den, president and portfolio …” – MORN on Fox Business
“…Star out there and also, bob rodriguez, he’s here, that’s him. Another shining star, tom atteberry. They work at first pacific advisors, a MORNINGSTAR fixed income managers of the year last what’s in store for the future of this country? We ask and you’ll find out coming up. …” – MORN on Fox Business
“…>> now they’re flashing it left and right. Harwood file. John harwood is up next with the we comes every friday at this >>> plus, MORNINGSTAR’s 2008 fixed income fund manager of the year, bob rodriguez at first don’t go away. …” – MORN on Squawk On The Street
“…Pile in with some of the others? >> okay. We lost david there, we’ll check back later on in the show down at the new york stock exchange. Dagen is with us right now. She’s out in chicago at the MORNINGSTAR conference. Dagen, take it away. >> dagen: thank you so much. Well, it’s about recovery. That’s what the mood, that’s what the discussion is here at MORNINGSTAR and there’s been incredible recovery for the weiss value fund and joining us in a fox business exclusive is bradley hinton, director of research at the weiss fund and he’s co-portfolio manager on the …” – MORN on Fox Business
“…Millionaire. We all want to do that because we want them to support us. >> and he’s been called the best fund manager off our time. Bob rodriguez, first pacific advisers. Live from that MORNINGSTAR conference. He’ll be our guest. We’re flat, mark. Let’s push it one way or the other. …” – MORN on Squawk On The Street
“…>> thank you. >> chuck royce of the royce funds and again, read what you write ’cause it’s insightful. Always unusual, thank you so much. >> well, still to come this hour, so much for MORNINGSTAR, exclusive interviews, sit-downs with managers, who, well, rarely appear on television, including chuck. And the government needs to raise money, and the national …” – MORN on Fox Business
“…Hummer is driving off the lot, gm selling off that brand, and chrysler already in bankruptcy we have going to have the latest on that. I’m here at the MORNINGSTAR conference with some of the biggest names in money here to weigh in on that and so much more, we have guests coming up in the next two hours who have over a century of investment experience. You can’t miss that. …” – MORN on Fox Business
“…Bonds, you name it, what does the future look like for borrowers, for credit, for lenders? Joining us is chief investment officer and founder of metropolitan west asset management MORNINGSTAR fixed income manager of the year in ’05. Good to see you, ted. >> like-wise. Thanks for having me on. >> love having you on, you can see the entire bond market in …” – MORN on The Opening Bell on Fox Business
“…Are ticking higher in early where in the world is your cash going to get treated best? From new york, art hogan, managing director at jefferies. And from the MORNINGSTAR conference in chicago, sarah kiterer, ceo and portfolio manager. Her fund is up 10% this year. Ladies first. …” – MORN on Squawk On The Street
“…Are. Load up on the small caps, or will they stick out the next rally? We go live to MORNINGSTAR investment conference. We will be right back here. This is "squawk on the street" …” – MORN on Squawk On The Street
“…Ten-year yields had a sharp jump from mid-march levels. The 30-year fixed mortgage rates, when you look at those rates, they have risen to levels we haven’t seen since early joining us from the MORNINGSTAR investor’s conference is mary ellen stanek. She’s chief investment adviser for the baird family of funds. …” – MORN on Squawk Box
“…Superintendent eric denalo will resign from his post. Resignation becomes effective july 3rd. Going to teach at nyu stern school of business. >>> MORNINGSTAR under way in chance for financial advisers to get together and talk. Bill griffith has been there all day talking. He’s there with another one right now. …” – MORN on Closing Bell
“…So, the saga will continue. >> david: thought it was over, never going to be over. Thank you very much. Some of the top mutual fund manager and investors of the world are gathered in chicago for the MORNINGSTAR investment conference. Our own dagen mcdowell joining us with a special guest. Hi, dagen. >> a special guest most good to see you and, well, today …” – MORN on Fox Business
“…I’ll make sure I bring that to you. >> david: fantastic, sandra great work, thank you very much. A meeting of the mind for the top mutual funds managers ap >> liz: coming together in the MORNINGSTAR conference in chicago, we’re live there next, dagen owning the show there on stay tuned. …” – MORN on Fox Business
“…Survey on the blog. Go to it, realtycheck.Cnbc.Com. Bill? >>> all right, thank you very we’re back here in chicago talking to all of the investors at the MORNINGSTAR investment conference. And early this morning, I sat down with one of the great value players on wall street. Marty whitman, the founder of the third avenue funds. Typically we would have talked about stocks. …” – MORN on Power Lunch