MAR Fundamental Research Investment Analysis, Marriott International, Inc. Shares- A

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Marriott International, Incorporated Shares- A (MAR)

The Razor's Edge

2-Year Price History

Recent Price
(1/30/2009)
$16.31
52-Week Price
$11.88 - $37.89
Market Capitalization
$5.7 Billion
Dividend Yield
2.10%
Most Recent Dividend
$0.28

About Marriott International, Inc. Shares- A

Marriott International, Incorporated Shares- A is considered to operate in the Services sector. They specifically operate in the Lodging business segment contained within the Leisure industry.

A worldwide operator & franchisor of hotels and related facilities. The Company's six business segments are: North American Full-Service Lodging, North American Limited-Service Lodging, International Lodging, Luxury Lodging, Timeshare & Synthetic Fuel.

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MAR Revenue

As a value investing shop, we are interested in seeing how MAR's revenues measure up against past performances. One easily understandable way of doing that is to compare Price to Sales per share levels over a given time frame. Assuming it is available, Ockham prefers to look at ten years of history (for this stock there are 10 years of history available) and we weigh recent years more heavily. This allows us to find weighted average historical high and low Price to Sales ratios, which give us a better idea of the stock's current underlying value. Using this method, we have established a high range for Price to Sales of 0.71x and the low end of the range at 0.42x.

With respect to these historically rational metrics, notice that the current Price to Sales per share ratio for MAR of 0.42x is well below its normal historic Price to Sales levels. At a price of $16.31, MAR is 26% below where we would expect to see it. Clearly, this stock looks undervalued compared to historical levels, at least on a Price to Sales basis. This will positively affect our analysis because it is rare to find a stock this far below historical norms, and we would expect some price appreciation to bring this metric back towards a more normal range.

MAR Cash Earnings

Looking at MAR specifically in their Cash Earnings capabilities, Ockham views MAR as significantly below its historical average multiple of Cash Earnings. Looking at the last 10 years we can get a good understanding of what investors have grown to expect from MAR. For example, MAR's Cash Earnings ratio per share has fluctuated between 6.01 and 10.20 over this historical timeframe. This range is based upon a proprietary weighted methodology at Ockham, but can clearly show an investor where MAR is with respect to prior business periods.

So with MAR's current price (latest close of $16.31) and most recent level of Cash Earnings reported, we see significant opportunity from a value perspective. At its current price level, MAR is 24% below its average level of Price to Cash Earnings on a historical basis. This means that investors were willing to pay for a much higher stock price than currently for the same level of Cash in the past, on a relative basis. There are a couple of important things to remember, however. First, value doesn't exist in a vacuum. So if the market doesn't recognize this value, even a great disparity in Price to Cash Earnings cannot force an immediate stock price reaction. Second, patience is key when looking at securities that have reached these levels of Price to Cash Earnings versus their historical norms. So be patient with MAR.

MAR Dividends

A positive Ockham rating does not require a company to pay out an inviting dividend or a dividend at all. However, we believe dividends provide a useful measure on a company's inherent expectations.

Comparable to our analysis of Sales and Cash Earnings per share, we examine dividend yields from MAR against the historic high and low levels over an available data range. Because MAR has an established history of paying a dividend to shareholders, there is value in comparing recent dividends to historical dividends. In MAR’s case, the estimated annual dividend is $0.35 producing a current dividend yield of 2.15%. The highest dividend yield from MAR in recent history was 2.95% while the lowest dividend yield was 0.48%. MAR’s current dividend yield is therefore significantly higher than its median dividend yield historically. In fact, the current yield is 25.36% above the median which weighs very positively on our analysis of MAR.

Peer Comparison

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Marriott International, Inc. Shares- A Industry Grouping

(1/30/2009)
Company Ticker Market Cap (Ml) Latest
Price
Price/Cash Earnings Price/Sales 5-Yr. Rev.
Growth Rate
5-Yr.
Avg. ROE.
Current 10-Yr. Range* Current 10-Yr. Range*
Peer Company Averages (not incuding MAR) 6.08 6.53 » 81.64 0.43 0.51 » 577.96 132.97% 41.15%
*10 year range does not include current year values
Starbucks Corp. SBUX $6.9 Billion $9.44 4.84 10.66 » 36.48 0.61 0.94 » 3.93 20.57% 21.54%
Marriott International, Inc. Shares- A MAR $5.7 Billion $16.31 6.23 4.85 » 26.87 0.42 0.32 » 1.55 9.00% 24.88%
Tim Hortons Inc. THI $4.5 Billion $24.57 12.10 9.87 » 22.15 0.00 0.00 » 0.00 n/a 139.45%
Carnival PLC ADS CUK $3.8 Billion $18.05 3.15 2.73 » 86.59 0.18 0.17 » 23.71 n/a 11.68%
Darden Restaurants, Inc. DRI $3.6 Billion $26.22 5.12 4.67 » 16.34 0.49 0.41 » 1.18 7.32% 22.82%
Wynn Resorts Limited WYNN $3.1 Billion $30.08 5.16 4.72 » 246.61 0.89 1.02 » 2861.00 371.04% 10.25%
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RazorWire™ & Community Discussion

Fox Business
1/30/2009 10:46 AM
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1/23/2009 8:10 AM
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12/31/2008 2:17 PM
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Key Fundamentals

MAR - Marriott International, Incorporated Shares- A Fundamentals
Price (1/30/2009) $16.31
Volume (1/30/2009) 5.6 Million
10 Day Average Volume 4.3 Million
13 Week Price Range $11.88 - $22.12
52 Week Price Range $11.88 - $37.89
LTM Revenue $12.9 Billion
 
Shares Outstanding (12/2007) 349.1 Million
Market Capitalization $5.7 Billion
Shares Held By Institutions 200.5 Million
Institutional Holders 487
% Shares Held By Institutions 57.40%
Earnings Per Share (EPS) $1.75
P/E Ratio 11.10
Book Value Per Share $4.09
 
Gross Margin 16.80%
Quarterly Dividend 0.35
Dividend Yield 2.10%
Beta 1.21
Fiscal Year Ends December