It has been reported on the blogosphere that Lufthansa is currently in talks to buy up to a 25% stake in JetBlue. JetBlue is a regional discount airline which specializes in servicing underserved markets and major city destinations which have high average fares. JetBlue’s stock price soared over 20% after the news leaked to the market. The two airlines are expected to make the official announcement after the close this evening.
Lufthansa, a long established German airline, is eager to take advantage of the dollar’s weakness against the euro. The dollar’s decline makes it an excellent time for foreign direct investment, as we have seen recently with Citigroup and UBS in the financial sector. The deal makes sense for JetBlue, as it is a way to strengthen its presence in the overextended airline industry. Many economists have predicted that consolidation of the industry would be a key to making the struggling industry solvent again. The industry has been hurt by ever rising fuel prices and JetBlue in particular is thought to be hurt by the emergence of Virgin Airlines as a low cost alternative. This deal is not consolidation in the traditional sense but it does align both of these carriers in order to make their market share greater. There is also speculation that this will lead to a bigger deal between the two down the road.
JetBlue has been the subject of many merger and buyout rumors this year. We have thought JetBlue was undervalued for some time now, and Lufthansa agrees with our assessment (with the added bonus of a favorable exchange rate). Keep an eye on JetBlue for a formal declaration of the deal as their stock price rises skyward.
UBS Announces a Huge Writedown, Again
CURRENT RATING: HOLD
December 10, 2007 11:40am
UBS has announced its second large write-down in as many months. The first was a $3.7 billion near the end of October. As you will notice from the 2-year price chart to the right, the stock price did take a hit upon that news. It is curious then that after announcing a second write-down, this time for $10 billion, that UBS stock is up nearly 3% in morning trading.
Both of these massive write-downs are attributable to exposure to sub-prime debt and CDO's. The most important difference in these two write-downs is that the second, larger one was supported by a capital infusion by the Singapore government. This new 9% stake in UBS appears to be taken straight from the Citigroup/ Abu Dhabi playbook. A smaller stake in the UBS deal went to an undisclosed Middles Eastern investor. Middle Eastern and Asian sovereign investors are likely to continue this sort of financing because they have large cash reserves with long term time frames.
However, the more important issue is how will this affect UBS's stock value. UBS is Europe's fourth largest bank and the world's largest wealth manager, but it has also been the most exposed to the U.S. housing crisis. Thus, many of the top executives have been relieved of their duties for mismanaging risks. We would be very nervous to own UBS right now. UBS is obviously heavily involved in this mess and it appears that the CDO and mortgage crisis show little sign of being near an end. The capital infusion, while noteworthy, does not inspire us that UBS is in the clear yet.
Eli Lilly Reports Healthy Profits
CURRENT RATING: BUY
December 7, 2007
Eli Lilly and Company increased profit expectations for 2008. Lilly, the Indianapolis based Pharmaceutical company, said it expects to see a 14% increase in profits over this year fueled by better sales. The company forcasts sales to grow in the mid to high single digit range.
Furthermore, the prospects for growth beyond 2008 look promising as well, with the anticipated launch of six new drugs before 2011. The sales of prasugrel which has been shown by a recent study to be more effective at treating blood clots than its competitor Plavix made by Bristol-Myers Squib Co. However, the study also exposed the higher risk of excessive bleeding from prasugrel. It remains to be seen if prasugrel will be successful in the huge market for Plavix and similar drugs.
The expected rise in profits is also a product of Eli Lilly & Co. quietly cutting costs. For example, management has cut the work-force by 11% since 2004. Lilly stock price has in a fairly narrow range for the last two years and we have been bullish on it for almost all of that time. We do have concerns about drug makers in the future because of the large and growing market share that generics now possess. However, Eli Lilly is doing the right things by developing new drugs and cutting excessive costs where possible.
AIG Speaks Up About Housing Exposure
CURRENT RATING: BUY
December 6, 2007.png)
After trading closed for the day Wednesday, insurance and financial services giant AIG gave investors what they have been seeking, reassurance. AIG had been ominously quiet as other behemoths in financial services such as Merrill Lynch and Citigroup had to announce huge write-offs of bad sub-prime loan exposure. In the wake of these write-offs, investors have beaten down most of the stocks in the financial sector. For example, AIG stock has been down some 23% in the last six months, without so much as a hint to their exposure to this mess. This is a speculative downturn based on all of the terrible news coming out of the rest of the mortgage market. If AIG's claim is indeed true, and we sincerely hope it is, then management demonstrated extremely impressive foresight on the mortgage crisis as much as three years ago!
So, it is certainly good news that this hype has been overblown at least in AIG's case. As you can see from the 2-year price chart above, we have liked AIG from a value standpoint at more elevated price levels, and we continue to have it rated a Buy. We compared the historical price levels for AIG, given the price-to-sales, price-to-cash, and PEs. Given the current valuation measures we would expect to see AIG trade in the range of $93-$134! While AIG probably will not achieve that range for some time, we will expect to see AIG move in that direction starting today. It is certainly a good buy and hold candidate for the long term investor.
For more on this topic, check out the Razor's Edge from Dec. 5th, which deals with the so-called "fix" for the sub-prime woes coming from the White House.
Merck Says Outlook is not as Rosy and We Agree
CURRENT RATING: HOLD
December 4, 2007
Ockham Research has reiterated its Hold rating on Merck & Company, Incorporated (MRK), which was upgraded to this rating in the report written on October 19th of the current year. Prior to then, MRK had been rated a Sell. While this is a reiteration of our Hold rating, it’s important to highlight recent changes in MRK's price and earnings expectations.
First, MRK decreased in price by over $2 since our last report on November 23, 2007 and this does not greatly impact our outlook. Second, since our last report, there have been some significant adjustments in earnings expectations or guidance. This morning Merck & Co. released 2008 earnings forecasts that were lower than expected. The consensus estimate from Wall St. analysts had been $3.36 per share. However, the company has lowered expectations to the range of $3.28-$3.38. Much of the downward movement of the price has been since this announcement.
It appears that Merck is confronting the generic drugs increasing market share, and thus Merck has to cut costs to keep up. Merck needed to cut 10% of its workforce in 2005 and seems destined for the same prescription in 2008. Such cost cutting measures are a good thing for Merck shareholders. Pharma companies are heavily dependent on the Research and Development side of the business for future earnings, so we would hope that the cost cutting does not extend to that side of the business.
Much of the 2008 results will be dictated by the success of Merck's new diabetes drug Januvia. This should be one of the first releases in a new class of drug designed to increase the body's internal production of insulin. The sales of this and a few other new drugs will be a key component to next year's growth.
As you can see from the two year price chart above, we were bullish on Merck two years ago. It has appreciated nicely since that point and we went bearish about a month ago. We will need to see a significant improvement in earnings in order to justify this price level before we become bullish again. From what Merck has released today it doesn't look very likely that this will happen any time soon.
Dell Reports Earnings are Up, Shares Take a Dive
CURRENT RATING: BUY
November 30, 2007
Ockham Research has reiterated its Buy rating on Dell, Incorporated (DELL), which was upgraded to this rating in the report written on February 9th of the current year. While this is a reiteration of our Buy rating, we will highlight recent changes in DELL's price and earnings expectations.
First, Dell reported a 26% jump in its 3Q earnings report. The company benefited from lower component costs and improved sales in developing markets. Initially, the better earnigns report was seen as evidence that restructuring had paid off and cut costs. However, after-hours trading was less optimistic as shares plummeted 10%. The market was responding to a conference call CEO Michael Dell had with anaylsts explaining that further restructuring will be needed. Much of the company plans to ignite growth will be discussed next Tuesday at the annual shareholder's meeting.
We are not afraid of this short term bump in the road, and we think that the recent downward movement makes Dell a solid long term buy. This price decrease will not cause an upgrade to a strong buy this week, but it may demonstrate an increase in the attractiveness of DELL should the fundamentals hold at their current levels or better.