BIG Investment Analysis Report & Stock Research, Big Lots, Inc.

Big Lots, Incorporated (BIG)

BIG Stock Report

2-Year Price History

View Larger BIG Chart
NYSE:BIG
$29.51
(2/9 11:30AM)
+1.1%
Open$29.47 Mkt Cap$2.4 Billion
High$29.68 52Wk High$31.39
Low$29.24 52Wk Low$13.83
Volume181,960 Avg Vol 10D1.1 Million

Ockham's Rating/Recommendation Summary

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BIG Revenue

For a long time, value investors have used the current share price relative to sales per share levels as an important valuation tool. We utilize a historical weighted average methodology that treats recent years more importantly in the calculation. When looking at BIG through this framework, we can see that our weighted average historical high and low Price to Sales per share ratios over the last 10 years are 0.63x and 0.28x respectively.

Utilizing this range we can see that BIG’s current Price to Sales per share ratio of 0.53x is significantly above its historical average. This places BIG at the upper end of its historical range relative to sales per share and makes it difficult to suggest an attractive price outlook. At current sales per share levels, we would need to see a decline in the Price to Sales ratio of 15% merely to return BIG to its historical average.

BIG Cash Earnings

As the old saying goes, "Cash is King!" We look at reported Cash Earnings, but the main emphasis of our analysis involves stripping out non-cash events such as depreciation from our cash earnings analysis. This helps us view the cash flows more clearly. Nevertheless, an analysis of Cash Earnings (both reported and otherwise) is absolutely pivotal to assessing a company's value, and currently BIG is significantly below its historical average multiple of cash earnings as calculated by Ockham. Similar to our analysis of sales per share, Ockham looks at the last 10 years of cash earnings levels for BIG to identify where the current high and low price levels have been historically in relation to profit per share. Again, we utilize a weighted average methodology which relies more heavily on recent years of data. This weighted average framework provides us with an average high Price to Cash Earnings ratio per share of 16.24 and a 7.39 low over the same period.

Now that BIG’s current price is $29.48 and its Price to Cash Earnings ratio is 9.93, we are very positive on its outlook from the cash earnings perspective. In fact, BIG is now trading a full 17% below its average historical Price to Cash Earnings ratio at these profit per share levels. When our clients ask us why BIG has great long term potential, the Cash Earnings levels to current stock is one of our primary reasons. But naturally, now we need for the overall market to recognize this disparity.

BIG Dividends

When determining a company's future prospects for success, Ockham Research sees analysis of dividend payments as a key additional factor. Even though it isn't imperative for BIG to shell out a dividend in order to receive a positive rating, it can be helpful to further our analysis. While we do like to see companies with healthy and growing dividends, it is not appropriate for all companies, especially those focused on growth. In this regard, we regard BIG as neutral because we do not have historical data for this company's dividends. We will being incorporating this into our analysis as soon as that data is available.

Peer Comparison

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Big Lots, Inc. Industry Grouping

(2/8/2010)
Company Ticker Market Cap (Ml) Latest
Price
Price/Cash Earnings Price/Sales 5-Yr. Rev.
Growth Rate
5-Yr.
Avg. ROE.
Current 10-Yr. Range* Current 10-Yr. Range*
Peer Company Averages (not including BIG) 13.19 4.10 » 34.11 1.35 0.35 » 3.17 2.20% 76.96%
*10 year range does not include current year values
IAC/InterActiveCorp IACI $2.5 Billion $21.16 7.56 2.54 » 23.69 2.06 0.36 » 2.32 -25.57% 2.39%
Big Lots, Inc. BIG $2.4 Billion $29.20 9.93 4.27 » 46.28 0.53 0.22 » 0.68 2.16% 11.52%
J.Crew Group, Inc. JCG $2.4 Billion $37.86 19.42 4.60 » 31.25 1.63 0.35 » 2.64 n/a 295.49%
Chico's FAS, Inc. CHS $2.4 Billion $13.37 22.25 6.38 » 36.85 1.44 0.38 » 5.99 15.54% 16.04%
RadioShack Corp. RSH $2.3 Billion $18.59 8.02 2.73 » 36.94 0.56 0.21 » 2.09 -1.90% 29.58%
Aeropostale, Inc. ARO $2.2 Billion $33.52 8.69 4.27 » 41.83 1.05 0.45 » 2.83 20.74% 41.32%
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3:48P, Jan. 20,2010 BIG $30.02 Big Lots, Inc.
Countdown to the Closing Bell

Countdown to the Closing Bell Has the Latest News on BIG

The latest news from business television and influential blogs is always available through Ockham's RazorWire, and this news is in relation to Big Lots, Incorporated.

Interestingly, overall sentiment looks bearish according to the Motley Fool's CAPS survey, as most of their users see Big Lots, Incorporated underperforming. The Ockham valuation currently has a Fairly Valued stance on BIG because it trades within the price range that we would expect given current market conditions and fundamentals. In comparison to the other stocks that we follow, Big Lots, Incorporated has seen more discussion in relation to its normal ranking among the group. Be aware that the news sources we track are focusing on this stock more often these days.

“… We have BIG LOTS trading lower. J. P. Morgan downloading from neutral, down 3%. With fourth quarter results, now priced into the stock. …”

1:24P, Jan. 08,2010 BIG $29.95 Big Lots, Inc.
Power Lunch

Discussion Turns to BIG and Merger Talk on Power Lunch

RazorWire captured a discussion on Power Lunch that contained talk of M&A activity and BIG was mentioned as well.

Interestingly, overall sentiment looks bearish according to the Motley Fool's CAPS survey, as most of their users see Big Lots, Incorporated underperforming. In comparison to the other stocks that we follow, Big Lots, Incorporated has seen more discussion in relation to its normal ranking among the group. Be aware that the news sources we track are focusing on this stock more often these days. The Ockham valuation currently has a Fairly Valued stance on BIG because it trades within the price range that we would expect given current market conditions and fundamentals.

“… retailers at 5 2-week highs include staples and BIG LOTS with a 1% gain in BIG LOTS and 2% gain in staples. No gain in the dow, though. …”

3:37P, Dec. 31,2009 BIG $29.23 Big Lots, Inc.
Countdown to the Closing Bell

RazorWire has Detected News About BIG on Countdown to the Closing Bell

Big Lots, Incorporated is one of the thousands of companies that Ockham has news analytics on, and it was recently discussed on Countdown to the Closing Bell.

While bearish sentiment on a stock is not always a bad thing, it is something you need to be aware of. The Motley Fool survey of crowd sentiment shows that many investors believe this stock will underperform. Ranking all stocks in terms of news coverage offers some interesting data. In the case of BIG, it is getting significantly more attention in recent news coverage than we are used to seeing. Big Lots, Incorporated receives our Fairly Valued rating in our latest report because the current price does not seem out of line with the fundamentals.

“… Amazon, apple, starbucks, american express, hovnanian, BIG LOTS. How about those up more than 200%? Western digital. New technologies, up more so certainly this really, you ... …”

11:31A, Dec. 24,2009 BIG $29.13 Big Lots, Inc.
Fox Business

See Who is Talking About News from BIG on Fox Business

The latest news on Fox Business in regards to BIG came through on RazorWire recently.

The Ockham valuation currently has a Fairly Valued stance on BIG because it trades within the price range that we would expect given current market conditions and fundamentals. Interestingly, overall sentiment looks bearish according to the Motley Fool's CAPS survey, as most of their users see Big Lots, Incorporated underperforming. In comparison to the other stocks that we follow, Big Lots, Incorporated has seen more discussion in relation to its normal ranking among the group. Be aware that the news sources we track are focusing on this stock more often these days.

“… broad based theme on kohl's a market share winner on this. >> brian: and BIG LOTS as well. I think BIG LOTS, last year, …”

7:13A, Dec. 24,2009 BIG $29.18 Big Lots, Inc.
Squawk Box

Squawk Box Discussed the Latest Development of Big Lots, Incorporated

The latest news on Squawk Box in regards to BIG came through on RazorWire recently.

Big Lots, Incorporated receives our Fairly Valued rating in our latest report because the current price does not seem out of line with the fundamentals. While bearish sentiment on a stock is not always a bad thing, it is something you need to be aware of. The Motley Fool survey of crowd sentiment shows that many investors believe this stock will underperform. Ranking all stocks in terms of news coverage offers some interesting data. In the case of BIG, it is getting significantly more attention in recent news coverage than we are used to seeing.

“… your favorite stocks? >> I wouldn't, absolutely not. Favorite stocks are kohl's and BIG LOTS. I continue to like tjx, the …”

6:45P, Dec. 23,2009 BIG $29.18 Big Lots, Inc.
Mad Money

News on BIG From the Pundits on Mad Money

The latest news from Mad Money on BIG is available through Ockham's news analytics platform RazorWire.

The Ockham valuation currently has a Fairly Valued stance on BIG because it trades within the price range that we would expect given current market conditions and fundamentals. In comparison to the other stocks that we follow, Big Lots, Incorporated has seen more discussion in relation to its normal ranking among the group. Be aware that the news sources we track are focusing on this stock more often these days. Interestingly, overall sentiment looks bearish according to the Motley Fool's CAPS survey, as most of their users see Big Lots, Incorporated underperforming.

“… Do you see big things for BIG LOTS? > > we looked at BIG LOTS as part of our play of stocks that could do well and we rejected it. We were wrong. …”

1:48P, Dec. 14,2009 BIG $28.90 Big Lots, Inc.
Power Lunch

RazorWire has Detected News About BIG on Power Lunch

News has broken via the television and viral blogs regarding BIG, so investors should take an interest in learning what was said.

Ranking all stocks in terms of news coverage offers some interesting data. In the case of BIG, it is getting significantly more attention in recent news coverage than we are used to seeing. Big Lots, Incorporated receives our Fairly Valued rating in our latest report because the current price does not seem out of line with the fundamentals. While bearish sentiment on a stock is not always a bad thing, it is something you need to be aware of. The Motley Fool survey of crowd sentiment shows that many investors believe this stock will underperform.

“… and the sinners. >> retailer hit new 5 2-week best buy, home depot, lows, BIG LOTS, all in the green. Thank you for that. …”

1:43P, Dec. 07,2009 BIG $28.38 Big Lots, Inc.
Power Lunch

Yearly Highs and BIG Recently Discussed on Power Lunch

Stick with it or dump it? Power Lunch discusses what an abnormally high price means for BIG's investors. Take note of Ockham's valaution on the stock as well.

While bearish sentiment on a stock is not always a bad thing, it is something you need to be aware of. The Motley Fool survey of crowd sentiment shows that many investors believe this stock will underperform. Big Lots, Incorporated receives our Fairly Valued rating in our latest report because the current price does not seem out of line with the fundamentals. We noticed recently that in comparison to all other stocks we analyze in the news; BIG has received less coverage from the financial media in business television and blogs.

“… Fedex, BIG LOTS and pepsi bottling, economic indicators of a sort, interesting. I like to see that, sue. > > I know you do. …”

3:57P, Dec. 04,2009 BIG $28.05 Big Lots, Inc.
Countdown to the Closing Bell

More News Than Normal on BIG from Countdown to the Closing Bell

Something important is going on with BIG today, as it is getting a lot of attention on business television and influential blogs.

The latest news on BIG has created quite a stir as the stock is trading $4.51 higher in today's session. We noticed recently that in comparison to all other stocks we analyze in the news; BIG has received less coverage from the financial media in business television and blogs. While bearish sentiment on a stock is not always a bad thing, it is something you need to be aware of. The Motley Fool survey of crowd sentiment shows that many investors believe this stock will underperform. Big Lots, Incorporated received our Fairly Valued rating in our latest report because the price at the time of the report of $24.01 did not seem out of line with the fundamentals. The price has risen since then and all other things being equal that makes BIG less attractive.

“… finally, BIG LOTS. I love this store. This is a close out retailor reporting better than expected quarterly numbers. Stock up 18%. …”

3:15P, Dec. 04,2009 BIG $27.66 Big Lots, Inc.
Countdown to the Closing Bell

Be Aware There is Lots of News Today On BIG and This Instance Comes from Countdown to the Closing Bell

We are observing a lot of attention being paid to BIG in the news, so if you hold the stock you may want to take a look at what is going on.

The crowd at The Motley Fool does not like BIG and believes that it will Underperform. After factoring in the current fundamentals versus their historically normal ranges, we have established a Fairly Valued stance on BIG. That being said, the recent price appreciation may be too much, too fast and we will consider downgrading on our next report. As we analyze the results from RazorWire, one thing we do is rank each stock in terms of amount of news coverage. Recently, BIG has been less covered in the news compared to the rest of our universe of stocks. Check the news on this stock because there is a catalyst that has allowed this stock to advance 17.51% today.

“… BIG LOTS raising the earning target and announcing $150 million stock buy-back that stock is jumping $4. 11. Time for the floor show. . …”

View All Big Lots, Inc. Stock News

Key Fundamentals

BIG - Big Lots, Incorporated Fundamentals
Price (2/9 11:30AM) $29.51
Volume (2/9 11:30AM) 181,960
Last Close Price $29.20
10 Day Average Volume 1.1 Million
13 Week Price Range $23.04 - $31.39
52 Week Price Range $13.83 - $31.39
LTM Revenue $4.6 Billion
 
Shares Outstanding (01/2009) 82.7 Million
Market Capitalization $2.4 Billion
Shares Held By Institutions 93.6 Million
Institutional Holders 384
% Shares Held By Institutions %
Earnings Per Share (EPS) $1.85
P/E Ratio 13.80
Book Value Per Share $10.68
 
Gross Margin 40.20%
Annual Dividend 0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Beta 1.13
Fiscal Year Ends January

About Big Lots, Inc.

Big Lots, Incorporated is considered to operate in the Services sector. They specifically operate in the Discount, Variety Stores business segment contained within the Retail industry.

The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates as a broadline closeout retailer in the United States. It offers products under six merchandising categories: Consumables, Home, Furniture, Hardlines, Seasonal and Other.