NYSE:AAP
$41.50
(2/9 3:13PM)
+1.7%
| Open | $41.15 |
Mkt Cap | $3.9 Billion |
| High | $41.59 |
52Wk High | $47.41 |
| Low | $40.77 |
52Wk Low | $35.49 |
| Volume | 626,884 |
Avg Vol 10D | 1.3 Million |
Ockham's Rating/Recommendation Summary
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AAP Revenue
Cash earnings is the most important factor in our analysis, but it goes without saying that if a company cannot produce sales then there is no ability to generate cash flow. By that logic we look very closely at revenue numbers as our second most important factor in valuing a company's stock. We have established reasonable Price to Sales per share ranges based on historical data of the last 10 years. For, AAP the high and low end of the Price to Sales per share ratios are 1.00x and 0.61x respectively.
Notice that AAP's current Price to Sales per share ratio is 0.71x, which is somewhat below its historical weighted average by 13%. Given this level of sales per share, we suggest a neutral share price forecast. To the extent there is a further drop in the Price to Sales ratio from current levels, which would occur through some combination of increased sales per share or a decline in share price, we would only become more positive about the Price to Sales ratio outlook.
AAP Cash Earnings
Looking at AAP specifically in their Cash Earnings capabilities, Ockham views AAP as below its historical average multiple of cash earnings as calculated by Ockham. Similar to our analysis of sales per share, Ockham looks at the last 10 years of cash earnings levels for AAP to identify where the current high and low price levels have been historically in relation to profit per share. Again, we utilize a weighted average methodology which relies more heavily on recent years of data. This weighted average framework provides us with an average high Price to Cash Earnings ratio per share of 12.96 and a 7.87 low over the same period.
With a historical average Cash Earnings ratio of 10.41, the current Cash Earnings ratio of 9.43 is a positive opportunity for value in the Ockham view. Naturally, we would love to see a deeper value opportunity for AAP, but to get there one of two things must occur (or both). Either the stock price must decline further to increase the long term buying opportunity, or the management at AAP needs to earn more cash. If either, or both, of these occur, then we could see a significant gap emerge between what investors were willing to pay for in the past, and where AAP is trading currently (latest close price of $40.72).
AAP Dividends
While it is not necessary to pay an attractive dividend or a dividend at all, to receive a positive rating from Ockham, we view dividends as an additionally helpful measure in determining the future potential of any company.
In AAP’s case, the estimated annual dividend is $0.24 resulting in a current dividend yield of 0.59%. Similar to our review of Sales and Cash Earnings per share, we evaluate dividend yields from AAP against the historic high and low levels over the past 10 years. The highest dividend yield from AAP over this period was 1.00% while the lowest dividend yield was 0.00% AAP’s current dividend yield is therefore significantly higher than its median dividend yield historically. In fact, the current yield is 18.00% above the median which weighs very positively on our analysis of AAP.
AAP and Analysts' Opinion Discussed on Closing Bell
When the television or blog talks about an analysts' opinion it could have a major impact on the stock.
Goodyear tire upgratd to buy by goldman sachs that they will have a sizeable earnings improvement and favorable supply and de machbd balance next year. ADVANCE AUTO PARTS downgraded from neutral to buy at goldman because they face difficult comparisons in the coming and frontline outperformed, hiking its price target on the stock to $33 from $23 on expectations for a rebound in >> retail earnings taking center
“… the coming and frontline outperformed, hiking its price target on the stock to $33 from $23 on expectations for a rebound in >> retail earnings taking center …”
News on Earnings Per Share for AAP on Squawk On The Street
AAP's earnings per share was discussed on Squawk On The Street which means there is something significant going on. Profits are the metric we pay the most attention to in our methodology.
It's up 40%. Aeropostale moving higher than 1 1/2%. Neutral rated. Hardly a big endorsement but it's help that stock out in the ADVANCE AUTO PARTS, number two auto parts retailer, lower by 5% eps was a penny light. But the same-store sales looked to be a little bit less than some were looking for at 4.7%. They're also going to have some costs and hedge winds going forward like credit suisse down on the news.
“… little bit less than some were looking for at 4.7%. They're also going to have some costs and hedge winds going forward like credit suisse down on the news. …”
Advance Auto Parts, Incorporated (AAP) Discussed on CNBC's Mad Money
Advance Auto Parts, Incorporated is in the news. Find out how this impacts AAP trading on Ockham Research.
And that's with the auto parts these are the companies that sell parts to and service the mom and pop's repair shops. They're in unbelievable shape. I'm talking auto zone, ADVANCE AUTO PARTS, o'reilly automotive. My favorite remains o'reilly because it has the most potential to increase its the company's integrating its major acquisition of csk which gives it an easy way to ingrant profits and gives you -- there's not much auto zone can do to boost its already high margins. ADVANCE AUTO PARTS in turnaround mode. Arournd. I want to bet on the increased business these companies will have with so many dealerships that get their parts from the manufacturers shutting their doors. O'reilly not cheap, 15 times
“… s the most potential to increase its the company's integrating its major acquisition of csk which gives it an easy way to ingrant profits and gives you -- there's not much auto zone can do to boost its already high margins. ADVANCE AUTO PARTS in turnaround mode. Arournd. I want to bet on the increased business these companies will have with so many dealerships that get their parts from the manufacturers shutting their doors. O'reilly not cheap, 15 times …”
Advance Auto Parts, Incorporated (AAP) Discussed on CNBC's Squawk On The Street
Advance Auto Parts, Incorporated is in the news. Find out how this impacts AAP trading on Ockham Research.
Will benefit from pepsi inc.'s more aggressive marketing marting ways with the auto parts companies, citigroup cutting to hold from buy. Both ADVANCE AUTO PARTS and autodoan, autozone is down only it was down sharply this they think there's headline risk in this cash for clunker legislation you might have heard
“… in this cash for clunker legislation you might have heard …”
Advance Auto Parts, Incorporated (AAP) Discussed on Fox Business's Fox Business
Advance Auto Parts, Incorporated is in the news. Find out how this impacts AAP trading on Ockham Research.
Terms of their trading this of course, there's something you expect to continue to see in. >> as long as we have cars, the opportunity here is at ADVANCE AUTO PARTS. >> obviously with the economy as par poor a shape it is, people looking to save dough. >> gives people an opportunity to go out and work on their obviously you can go out and you
“… gives people an opportunity to go out and work on their obviously you can go out and you …”
Advance Auto Parts, Incorporated (AAP) Discussed on Fox Business's Fox Business
Advance Auto Parts, Incorporated is in the news. Find out how this impacts AAP trading on Ockham Research.
That's the way it is now, yes, >> people holding on to their cars longer so they need information, whether it's books or online help which the folks at ADVANCE AUTO PARTS also provide. And this has been a boom not only to your company but auto zone, take a look at those stocks. We may have the stock boards. While this gives us today's
“… a look at those stocks. We may have the stock boards. While this gives us today's …”
Advance Auto Parts, Incorporated (AAP) Discussed on Fox Business's Fox Business
Advance Auto Parts, Incorporated is in the news. Find out how this impacts AAP trading on Ockham Research.
Auto industry. People are driving their cars longer, not buying new cars which means they gotta buy parts to keep them running. Jeff flock from an ADVANCE AUTO PARTS store in chicago. Jeff? >> indeed, brian. New parts makers not doing well at all. But auto parts stores for guys like you and I to come in -- in fact, you know more about cars
“… o parts stores for guys like you and I to come in -- in fact, you know more about cars …”
Advance Auto Parts, Incorporated (AAP) Discussed on Fox Business's Countdown to the Closing Bell
Advance Auto Parts, Incorporated is in the news. Find out how this impacts AAP trading on Ockham Research.
It also reported a second quarter net loss, but didn't cut fiscal erpgs and estimates going forward. Stock up 11%. Number four ADVANCE AUTO PARTS. This is thanks to the do it yourselfer. You are not buying new cars, fixing the ones you have. Sales up 14%.
“… …”
Advance Auto Parts, Incorporated (AAP) Discussed on CNBC's Squawk On The Street
Advance Auto Parts, Incorporated is in the news. Find out how this impacts AAP trading on Ockham Research.
Conviction buy list at goldman that's good for 6 1/2%. They think it has about another 20, 25% up side headed to $35 a a couple auto parts names are working here today. ADVANCE AUTO PARTS goes to buy at raymond james. Look at the move there. 15% higher on the news. Also o'reilly automotive with higher than expected results in the fourth quarter. They came in with 37 cents.
“… the news. Also o'reilly automotive with higher than expected results in the fourth quarter. They came in with 37 cents. …”