TIVO Investment Analysis Report & Stock Research, TiVo, Inc.

TiVo, Incorporated (TIVO)

TIVO Stock Report

2-Year Price History

View Larger TIVO Chart
NASDAQ:TIVO
$15.95
(3/18 4:00PM)
+0.6%
Open$15.84 Mkt Cap$1.7 Billion
High$16.41 52Wk High$17.98
Low$15.57 52Wk Low$6.41
Volume6.0 Million Avg Vol 10D15.1 Million

Ockham's Rating/Recommendation Summary

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TIVO Revenue

Cash earnings is the most important factor in our analysis, but it goes without saying that if a company cannot produce sales then there is no ability to generate cash flow. By that logic we look very closely at revenue numbers as our second most important factor in valuing a company's stock. We have established reasonable Price to Sales per share ranges based on historical data of the last 10 years. For, TIVO the high and low end of the Price to Sales per share ratios are 6.49x and 2.55x respectively.

Notice that TIVO's current Price to Sales per share ratio is 7.72x, which is high enough compared with historical norms of TIVO to cause some concern. The current Price to Sales per share is near the upper end of the historical range. In our eyes, this is a negative factor because it is more likely that it will return to the normal range than continue rising outside of the range. At current sales per share levels, we would need to see a decline in the Price to Sales ratio of 70% merely to return TIVO to its historical average.

TIVO Cash Earnings

Price to Cash Earnings analysis is inappropriate for this company due to an insufficient positive cash earnings history. Rather than calculating a potentially misleading Price to Cash Earnings analysis, we have chosen to give TIVO a neutral Price to Cash Earnings outlook at this time. However, we should point out that this metric is a significant element in Ockham’s methodology to analyzing the outlook for any company. Therefore, for TIVO, our assessment is now more dependent on the Price to Sales analysis, and investors should be cautious with a company with very limited, if any, positive cash earnings.

TIVO Dividends

A positive Ockham rating does not require a company to pay out an inviting dividend or a dividend at all. However, we believe dividends provide a useful measure of a company's inherent expectations. As of the time of this report, our data provider does not have historical data for TIVO. Therefore, we are not utilizing the dividends portion in our study. So, we do not know whether TIVO currently pays a dividend at present or not, we have an "expected dividend" payment listed in key fundamentals but cannot varify it.

Peer Comparison

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TiVo, Inc. Industry Grouping

(3/17/2010)
Company Ticker Market Cap (Ml) Latest
Price
Price/Cash Earnings Price/Sales 5-Yr. Rev.
Growth Rate
5-Yr.
Avg. ROE.
Current 10-Yr. Range* Current 10-Yr. Range*
Peer Company Averages (not including TIVO) 9.73 2.26 » 30.24 1.53 0.39 » 3.52 12.20% 15.36%
*10 year range does not include current year values
John Wiley & Sons, Inc., CL A JWA $2.2 Billion $43.40 10.40 4.47 » 14.59 1.60 0.68 » 2.47 11.79% 22.76%
TiVo, Inc. TIVO $1.7 Billion $15.85 -1.00 3.71 » 8.62 7.72 1.47 » 21.40 12.09% 18.71%
Central European Media Enterprises, Ltd. CETV $1.7 Billion $30.35 8.59 0.24 » 61.15 2.61 0.01 » 6.38 31.39% 2.83%
The New York Times Company NYT $1.7 Billion $11.42 10.88 3.25 » 35.23 0.69 0.20 » 2.62 -5.88% 8.26%
Corus Entertainment, Inc. CL B CJR $1.5 Billion $19.95 8.52 2.96 » 18.07 2.13 1.04 » 3.64 7.15% 7.15%
Valassis Communications, Inc. VCI $1.4 Billion $29.13 10.26 0.38 » 22.17 0.63 0.02 » 2.51 16.54% 35.80%
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8:17A, Mar. 09,2010 TIVO $16.80 TiVo, Inc.
Zero Hedge

TIVO's Costs at the Forefront on Zero Hedge

Keeping costs in check is a primary responsibility of corporate managers; Zero Hedge discussed TIVO's costs recently.

As we analyze the results from RazorWire, one thing we do is rank each stock in terms of amount of news coverage. Recently, TIVO has been less covered in the news compared to the rest of our universe of stocks. After factoring in the current fundamentals versus their historically normal ranges, we have established a Fairly Valued stance on TIVO. The crowd at The Motley Fool does not like TIVO and believes that it will Underperform.

“… TIVO Inc. 's Q4 loss widened to $10. 2M on higher costs, beats est. Revs up 16% to $68. 5M. Class-action lawsuits could cost Toyota $3B-plus. Verizon CFO sees 2010 capex of $16. …”

7:17A, Mar. 09,2010 TIVO $16.80 TiVo, Inc.
Seeking Alpha Wall St Breakfast

Earnings News Regarding TiVo, Incorporated Noted on Seeking Alpha Wall St Breakfast

We thought our clients would like to be aware of a news story involving TIVO's earnings per share.

As we analyze the results from RazorWire, one thing we do is rank each stock in terms of amount of news coverage. Recently, TIVO has been less covered in the news compared to the rest of our universe of stocks. The crowd at The Motley Fool does not like TIVO and believes that it will Underperform. After factoring in the current fundamentals versus their historically normal ranges, we have established a Fairly Valued stance on TIVO.

“… (PR) TIVO (TIVO): Q4 EPS of -$0. 09 beats by $0. 03. Revenue of $45M (-6. 6%) vs. $47M. Guides Q1 revenue below consensus. Shares -1. 6% AH. …”

6:03A, Mar. 09,2010 TIVO $16.80 TiVo, Inc.
Squawk Box

Delevoping Economies and Where TIVO Fits In on Squawk Box

News related to emerging markets affecting TiVo, Incorporated today, and Squawk Box discussed some recent developments.

TiVo, Incorporated receives our Fairly Valued rating in our latest report because the current price does not seem out of line with the fundamentals. We noticed recently that in comparison to all other stocks we analyze in the news; TIVO has received less coverage from the financial media in business television and blogs. While bearish sentiment on a stock is not always a bad thing, it is something you need to be aware of. The Motley Fool survey of crowd sentiment shows that many investors believe this stock will underperform.

“… last week, TIVO has a new dvr that blends broadcast and online content, as well. Also, apple and microsoft are both trying to do this on set top boxes, as well. > > …”

7:22P, Mar. 08,2010 TIVO $16.95 TiVo, Inc.
Asia Morning Call

Asia Morning Call Has the Latest News on TIVO

The latest news from Asia Morning Call on TIVO is available through Ockham's news analytics platform RazorWire.

Interestingly, overall sentiment looks bearish according to the Motley Fool's CAPS survey, as most of their users see TiVo, Incorporated underperforming. The Ockham valuation currently has a Fairly Valued stance on TIVO because it trades within the price range that we would expect given current market conditions and fundamentals. When taking into account the amount of news coverage each stock normally sees as a percentage of the total, TiVo, Incorporated has actually sunk a bit in comparison to the others.

“… TIVO after hours shares are down slightly. It beat estimates reporting a fourth quarter loss of 9 cents per share. Investors were looking for 12 cents loss. …”

4:53P, Mar. 08,2010 TIVO $17.26 TiVo, Inc.
Bulls & Bears

Check Out Bulls & Bears and News on TIVO

The latest news on Bulls & Bears in regards to TIVO came through on RazorWire recently.

When taking into account the amount of news coverage each stock normally sees as a percentage of the total, TiVo, Incorporated has actually sunk a bit in comparison to the others. Interestingly, overall sentiment looks bearish according to the Motley Fool's CAPS survey, as most of their users see TiVo, Incorporated underperforming. The Ockham valuation currently has a Fairly Valued stance on TIVO because it trades within the price range that we would expect given current market conditions and fundamentals.

“… TIVO had a smaller loss than expected. Revenue exceeding a lower forecast beating first quarter forecast which looks a light on the service and technology revenues but shares ... …”

4:18P, Mar. 08,2010 TIVO $17.32 TiVo, Inc.
Tech Trader Daily-Barron's

Tech Trader Daily-Barron's Has the Latest News on TIVO

The latest news on Tech Trader Daily-Barron's in regards to TIVO came through on RazorWire recently.

Interestingly, overall sentiment looks bearish according to the Motley Fool's CAPS survey, as most of their users see TiVo, Incorporated underperforming. When taking into account the amount of news coverage each stock normally sees as a percentage of the total, TiVo, Incorporated has actually sunk a bit in comparison to the others. The Ockham valuation currently has a Fairly Valued stance on TIVO because it trades within the price range that we would expect given current market conditions and fundamentals.

“… TIVO (TIVO) this afternoon reported revenue for its fiscal fourth quarter ended January 31 of $45. 3 million, ahead of guidance at $43 million to $45 million, although below the ... …”

4:18P, Mar. 08,2010 TIVO $17.32 TiVo, Inc.
Tech Trader Daily-Barron's

Stay Current on TIVO's News on Tech Trader Daily-Barron's

Staying informed on the news is invaluable for investors, and RazorWire has captured a recently discussion on TIVO from Tech Trader Daily-Barron's.

As we analyze the results from RazorWire, one thing we do is rank each stock in terms of amount of news coverage. Recently, TIVO has been less covered in the news compared to the rest of our universe of stocks. The crowd at The Motley Fool does not like TIVO and believes that it will Underperform. After factoring in the current fundamentals versus their historically normal ranges, we have established a Fairly Valued stance on TIVO.

“… million to $21 million and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $9 million to $11 million. In late trading, TIVO is up 12 cents, to …”

7:10A, Mar. 08,2010 TIVO $17.63 TiVo, Inc.
Seeking Alpha Wall St Breakfast

TiVo, Incorporated and Alpha Discussed on Seeking Alpha Wall St Breakfast

Unlocking profits and finding alpha are goals that every investor shares, and recently Seeking Alpha Wall St Breakfast talked about generating profit with TIVO.

Interestingly, overall sentiment looks bearish according to the Motley Fool's CAPS survey, as most of their users see TiVo, Incorporated underperforming. The Ockham valuation currently has a Fairly Valued stance on TIVO because it trades within the price range that we would expect given current market conditions and fundamentals. When taking into account the amount of news coverage each stock normally sees as a percentage of the total, TiVo, Incorporated has actually sunk a bit in comparison to the others. Take notice of the news on this stock because it is up $1.10 since the close of trading yesterday.

“… Index5:00 PM NABE Economic Policy Conference Notable earnings before Monday's open: [[YGE]] Notable earnings after Monday's close: [[HRB]], [[TIVO]], [[VVUS]] Seeking Alpha ... …”

6:31P, Mar. 05,2010 TIVO $17.63 TiVo, Inc.
Mad Money

Mad Money: An Extremely Hot News Day for TiVo, Incorporated Today

The newswires are burning up right now on TiVo, Incorporated, so check our RazorWire or turn on your TV to see why it is so active in the news.

The crowd at The Motley Fool does not like TIVO and believes that it will Underperform. After factoring in the current fundamentals versus their historically normal ranges, we have established a Fairly Valued stance on TIVO. That being said, the recent price appreciation may be too much, too fast and we will consider downgrading on our next report. As we analyze the results from RazorWire, one thing we do is rank each stock in terms of amount of news coverage. Recently, TIVO has been less covered in the news compared to the rest of our universe of stocks. Check the news on this stock because there is a catalyst that has allowed this stock to advance 72.62% today.

“… dish network and TIVO and now that the legal defeat with TIVO is priced into the stock, what's your target range and outlook for dish, and what's your target range and outlook ... …”

5:47P, Mar. 05,2010 TIVO $17.55 TiVo, Inc.
Fast Money

Fast Money: Discussion of Analysts and TiVo, Incorporated

When the television or blog talks about an analysts' opinion it could have a major impact on the stock.

Take notice of the news on this stock because it is up $7.34 since the close of trading yesterday. Interestingly, overall sentiment looks bearish according to the Motley Fool's CAPS survey, as most of their users see TiVo, Incorporated underperforming. When taking into account the amount of news coverage each stock normally sees as a percentage of the total, TiVo, Incorporated has actually sunk a bit in comparison to the others. The Ockham valuation currently has a Fairly Valued stance on TIVO because it trades within the price range that we would expect given current market conditions and fundamentals. But as the price has risen in the last week, we have begun to look slightly less favorably on the valuation.

“… The story in TIVO was definitely a bullish one. Very often when you see a big move that's when people say it's come close to my price target. …”

View All TiVo, Inc. Stock News

Key Fundamentals

TIVO - TiVo, Incorporated Fundamentals
Price (3/18 4:00PM) $15.95
Volume (3/18 4:00PM) 6.0 Million
Last Close Price $15.85
10 Day Average Volume 15.1 Million
13 Week Price Range $8.56 - $17.98
52 Week Price Range $6.41 - $17.98
LTM Revenue $237.6 Million
 
Shares Outstanding (01/2010) 109.9 Million
Market Capitalization $1.7 Billion
Shares Held By Institutions 89.3 Million
Institutional Holders 166
% Shares Held By Institutions 82.30%
Earnings Per Share (EPS) ($0.23)
P/E Ratio n/a
Book Value Per Share $1.78
 
Gross Margin 54.10%
Annual Dividend 0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Beta 0.66
Fiscal Year Ends January

About TiVo, Inc.

TiVo, Incorporated is considered to operate in the Services sector. They specifically operate in the Cable Television Systems business segment contained within the Media industry.

The Company is a provider of technology and services for digital video recorders.