Equity Research and Investment Analysis

  • Domino’s Pizza: Smoothly Handles Big Changes
    by Ockham Research Staff on 3/2/2010
    Transitioning both leadership and a company's core product could often spell doom for shareholders, at least in the near term, but Domino's has been greatly outperforming since the start of the year. Domino's is up 56% which compares to basically flat results for the S&P 500 index this year and a return of just 5.5% for competitor Papa John's.
  • Investors Love Domino’s New Recipe
    by Ockham Research Staff on 1/14/2010
    Even though the new pizza is generating a lot of attention and some analysts are upping sales targets as a result, we believe DPZ is attractive even without a meaningful bump to sales. For the stock to reach just the midpoint of their historically normal valuation ranges would imply a price of around $18 based on current fundamentals. We do not assuming that stocks will revert to their normal valuations but we think the risk reward is certainly worth a look.
  • Papa John’s Serves Up Guidance
    by Ockham Research Staff on 12/15/2009
    Shares of Papa John's International (PZZA) are surging more than 9 percent following Monday afternoon's announcement that next year's earnings per share will range from $1.70 to $1.90. Current analysts' estimates had the company pegged to deliver $1.74 per share, so this news is seen as a positive to investors.
  • The Closing Bell on CNBC
    by Ockham Research Staff on 4/2/2009
    A quick rundown of all of the stocks mentioned on Closing Bell is available on Ockham's RazorWire.
  • Weight Watchers Guidance Comes in Too Light
    by Ockham Research Staff on 2/26/2010
    The guidance out of Weight Watchers should not be dismissed, but we think a lot of the difficulties seen in the year ahead have already been priced in. The company has decently strong underlying value based on the current fundamentals and value investors with a longer time frame may benefit from an eventual rebound in Weight Watchers business. In the interim the stock yields a respectable 2.7% at the current price, and we believe the downside is likely fairly limited at this point.
  • Genuine Parts Company: Value Investors Are Too Late
    by Ockham Research Staff on 2/16/2010
    General Parts Company (GPC), which is the parent company for Napa Auto Parts, reported earnings on Tuesday that exceeded analysts estimate for the fiscal fourth quarter 2009. Analysts expected the company to report EPS of $.51 on sales of $2.4 billion, but the actual results outpaced estimates on both counts with EPS of $.62 and revenue of $2.47 billion. The stock rose by more than 6% following the results, but according to our methodology value investors have missed the boat on this stock.
  • Papa John’s Serves Up Guidance
    by Ockham Research Staff on 12/15/2009
    Shares of Papa John's International (PZZA) are surging more than 9 percent following Monday afternoon's announcement that next year's earnings per share will range from $1.70 to $1.90. Current analysts' estimates had the company pegged to deliver $1.74 per share, so this news is seen as a positive to investors.
  • McDonald’s Growth Finally Cooling
    by Ockham Research Staff on 12/8/2009
    McDonald's valuation looks very reasonable, even considering global growth may be finally slowing. The market has focused on top-line growth because of today's sales release, but we think a long term investor should primarily focus on earnings growth which remains quite attractive.
  • Cramer Takes on Fast Food
    by Ockham Research Staff on 8/11/2009
    Wendy's still trades at a significant premium to earnings, and has been a much hotter stock than its competitors recently. We are in agreement with Cramer that the company is starting to turn a corner, but we cannot recommend buying these shares at the current price. The stock is getting the Cramer bounce of 5.5 percent today that often comes the day after Cramer covers a stock on his show. If the stock did have a pull back of 10-15 percent and continues to show improved profitability and growth, then we would likely become at least interested.
  • McDonald’s: Revenues Were McLight and The Street’s Not Loving It
    by Ockham Research Staff on 7/23/2009
    MCD is only down 2% over the last year, coming into the day, outpacing the S&P by more than 25%. By our methodology, McDonald's is priced just about where it should be based on the fundamentals of cash earnings, revenue, sales growth, ROE, and dividends.
  • Yum! Brands Quarter Hinges on China
    by Ockham Research Staff on 7/14/2009
    If you believe that the dollar will be headed lower over the long term as the U.S. government continues to run the printing presses, then the emerging market growth strategy of Yum! Brands could make it more appealing to you. For us, with a multiple approaching 18x, we think YUM is too expensive compared to its competitors.
  • Short Sellers Diving into Healthcare
    by Ockham Research Staff on 6/25/2009
    There is no way, at this early stage, that we can have any idea how any legislation might effect corporate earnings in the sector, but you can expect that there will be increased volatility because of the amount of interest that will be generated when news on this topic breaks. At this point, all we can say is be prepared for a bumpy ride in healthcare, and the professionals are increasingly placing there bets to the downside.
  • McDonald’s Riding High By Pricing Low
    by Ockham Research Staff on 10/22/2008
    Consumers everywhere are pinching penny's in this difficult economic environment and McDonald's is one of the benefitiaries of this trend. We highlight in this post why MCD may be a great hedge against further deterioration of the economy.