NYSE:TOL
$19.00
(2/9 1:28PM)
-0.1%
| Open | $19.21 |
Mkt Cap | $3.1 Billion |
| High | $19.48 |
52Wk High | $23.62 |
| Low | $18.75 |
52Wk Low | $13.72 |
| Volume | 2.3 Million |
Avg Vol 10D | 3.1 Million |
Ockham's Rating/Recommendation Summary
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TOL Revenue
Cash earnings is the most important factor in our analysis, but it goes without saying that if a company cannot produce sales then there is no ability to generate cash flow. By that logic we look very closely at revenue numbers as our second most important factor in valuing a company's stock. We have established reasonable Price to Sales per share ranges based on historical data of the last 10 years. For, TOL the high and low end of the Price to Sales per share ratios are 1.50x and 0.79x respectively.
Notice that TOL's current Price to Sales per share ratio is 1.75x, which is high enough compared with historical norms of TOL to cause some concern. The current Price to Sales per share is near the upper end of the historical range. In our eyes, this is a negative factor because it is more likely that it will return to the normal range than continue rising outside of the range. At current sales per share levels, we would need to see a decline in the Price to Sales ratio of 53% merely to return TOL to its historical average.
TOL Cash Earnings
Price to Cash Earnings analysis is inappropriate for this company due to anticipated negative cash flows for this year. A negative cash flow presents many complications when comparing the company's current value to historically normal valuations. Clearly, when a company fails to earn a profit, it should be a concern for investors. As such, we have taken a negative view on TOL from a cash perspective. We should point out that this metric is a significant element in Ockham’s methodology for analyzing the outlook for any company.
Many young companies have come through difficult times like this before; these companies have an opportunity to grow revenue appropriately to bring them around to profitablity. However, for mature company's with a history of positive cash flow this can be much more distressing. Therefore, for TOL, our overall valutaion is now more dependent on the Price to Sales analysis, and investors should be cautious with a company with very limited, if any, positive cash earnings.
TOL Dividends
When determining a company's future prospects for success, Ockham Research sees analysis of dividend payments as a key additional factor. Even though it isn't imperative for TOL to shell out a dividend in order to receive a positive rating, it can be helpful to further our analysis. TOL may pay a dividend at this time; however, there is an insufficient amount of history to incorporate it into our analysis. Therefore, we are not utilizing the dividends or lack thereof in our study. As TOL more consistent dividend history is made available, we will begin to factor this into the Ockham approach.
Talk of TOL's CEO Toll on Squawk On The Street
Toll Brothers, Incorporated's CEO is obviously vital to his company, so we believe any news covering him is worth knowing for investors.
The crowd at The Motley Fool does not like TOL and believes that it will Underperform. At Ockham, we are not advising buying Toll Brothers, Incorporated at the current price level because according to our methodology it is not supported by the fundamentals. When looking at our entire coverage universe and ranking stocks by the attention they receive on RazorWire, it is clear that Toll Brothers, Incorporated has been talked about more than normal recently.
“… TOLL BROTHERS. The home builder downgraded to neutral from buy with goldman sachs. The firm cutting its six-month target on toll from 24 to 28. …”
Did You See TOL's CEO Toll on Countdown to the Closing Bell?
Toll Brothers, Incorporated's CEO is obviously vital to his company, so we believe any news covering him is worth knowing for investors.
Take notice of the news on this stock because it is up $1.42 since the close of trading yesterday. When taking into account the amount of news coverage each stock normally sees as a percentage of the total, Toll Brothers, Incorporated has actually sunk a bit in comparison to the others. As of this week's report, we have an Overvalued valuation on TOL because the price has gotten too high to be justified by the fundamentals. Interestingly, overall sentiment looks bearish according to the Motley Fool's CAPS survey, as most of their users see Toll Brothers, Incorporated underperforming.
“… Lennar and TOLL BROTHERS, the -- and also we've got airlines and security on the move as well in light of the most recent news under pressure today. …”
Talk of TOL's CEO Toll on Countdown to the Closing Bell
Toll Brothers, Incorporated's CEO is obviously vital to his company, so we believe any news covering him is worth knowing for investors.
The crowd at The Motley Fool does not like TOL and believes that it will Underperform. At Ockham, we are not advising buying Toll Brothers, Incorporated at the current price level because according to our methodology it is not supported by the fundamentals. As we analyze the results from RazorWire, one thing we do is rank each stock in terms of amount of news coverage. Recently, TOL has been less covered in the news compared to the rest of our universe of stocks. Check the news on this stock because there is a catalyst that has allowed this stock to advance 5.60% today.
“… TOLL BROTHERS up more than 7%, but here we are at the highs of the day, 900 million shares. We'll see what happens in the last half hour of trading, less back to you. …”
Did You See TOL's CEO Toll on The Call?
CEO's are the strategic leaders of their companies, so any mention of them will garner special interest from us.
The latest news on TOL has created quite a stir as the stock is trading $1.06 higher in today's session. At the current price, value investors will want to look elsewhere for a buying opportunity as this stock has heated up and is currently Overvalued. While bearish sentiment on a stock is not always a bad thing, it is something you need to be aware of. The Motley Fool survey of crowd sentiment shows that many investors believe this stock will underperform. We noticed recently that in comparison to all other stocks we analyze in the news; TOL has received less coverage from the financial media in business television and blogs.
“… Horton and TOLL BROTHERS as maybe this is a signal of things to come. I know you want to touch on retail as well. > > we got those same-store sales that were better than ... …”
Heard on Fox Business: CEO of TOL Discussed
Keeping up with a CEO is one way that we try to better understand the direction of a company, and there was talk about TOL management on Fox Business.
As we analyze the results from RazorWire, one thing we do is rank each stock in terms of amount of news coverage. Recently, TOL has been less covered in the news compared to the rest of our universe of stocks. At Ockham, we are not advising buying Toll Brothers, Incorporated at the current price level because according to our methodology it is not supported by the fundamentals. The crowd at The Motley Fool does not like TOL and believes that it will Underperform.
“… Pulte and TOLL BROTHERS to down side. Lennar and kb home holding on to some gains there. That traders are watching very saying the bulls still have the ball here on wall ... …”
The Chief Executive of TOL Was Discussed on The Call
CEO's are the strategic leaders of their companies, so any mention of them will garner special interest from us.
As we analyze the results from RazorWire, one thing we do is rank each stock in terms of amount of news coverage. Recently, TOL has been less covered in the news compared to the rest of our universe of stocks. The crowd at The Motley Fool does not like TOL and believes that it will Underperform. At Ockham, we are not advising buying Toll Brothers, Incorporated at the current price level because according to our methodology it is not supported by the fundamentals.
“… Housing, when I hear about housing which trails 10 to 24 months and commercial housing, look at the TOLL BROTHERS and look at other real estate. …”
A Discussion of TOL's CEO Occurred on Squawk On The Street
Staying in touch with the latest management news is one way we are keeping our clients informed. Notice, RazorWire has a news capture related to TOL's CEO.
At the current price, value investors will want to look elsewhere for a buying opportunity as this stock has heated up and is currently Overvalued. While bearish sentiment on a stock is not always a bad thing, it is something you need to be aware of. The Motley Fool survey of crowd sentiment shows that many investors believe this stock will underperform. We noticed recently that in comparison to all other stocks we analyze in the news; TOL has received less coverage from the financial media in business television and blogs.
“… Right now there's the only buy in the group is TOLL BROTHERS. If they got cheaper, we have to see what happens in terms of other companies' valuations. > > …”
Heard on The Call: CEO of TOL Discussed
Toll Brothers, Incorporated's CEO is obviously vital to his company, so we believe any news covering him is worth knowing for investors.
At the current price, value investors will want to look elsewhere for a buying opportunity as this stock has heated up and is currently Overvalued. Ranking all stocks in terms of news coverage offers some interesting data. In the case of TOL, it is getting significantly more attention in recent news coverage than we are used to seeing. While bearish sentiment on a stock is not always a bad thing, it is something you need to be aware of. The Motley Fool survey of crowd sentiment shows that many investors believe this stock will underperform.
“… All 12 of the members in the home builder's super composite index trading higher here today, kaybee homes, pulte, ryland and TOLL BROTHERS all higher here today, 12 of 12 on the ... …”
Squawk On The Street: Get Plugged into TOL News Regarding The CEO
Ockham is always interested to know what the Chief Executive is doing for their company, and we noticed a mention of TOL's CEO on Squawk On The Street.
The crowd at The Motley Fool does not like TOL and believes that it will Underperform. At Ockham, we are not advising buying Toll Brothers, Incorporated at the current price level because according to our methodology it is not supported by the fundamentals. As we analyze the results from RazorWire, one thing we do is rank each stock in terms of amount of news coverage. Recently, TOL has been less covered in the news compared to the rest of our universe of stocks.
“… We saw TOLL BROTHERS' results out last week and we're seeing their 2010 and 2011 estimates are being lowered at fbn today. That stock is a little change right now. …”
Heard on Closing Bell: CEO of TOL Discussed
Toll Brothers, Incorporated's CEO is obviously vital to his company, so we believe any news covering him is worth knowing for investors.
The crowd at The Motley Fool does not like TOL and believes that it will Underperform. Please be aware that TOL is trading off $1.48 today, and is clearly being affected by the latest news. As we analyze the results from RazorWire, one thing we do is rank each stock in terms of amount of news coverage. Recently, TOL has been less covered in the news compared to the rest of our universe of stocks. At Ockham, we are not advising buying Toll Brothers, Incorporated at the current price level because according to our methodology it is not supported by the fundamentals.
“… Robert toll, TOLL BROTHERS > > > got the closing countdown coming up after this short break. > > > google's president of business development gives us an growth strategy. . …”