NYSE:HUM
$47.85
(2/9 1:46PM)
+2.4%
| Open | $47.35 |
Mkt Cap | $7.9 Billion |
| High | $48.01 |
52Wk High | $52.66 |
| Low | $46.26 |
52Wk Low | $18.57 |
| Volume | 1.3 Million |
Avg Vol 10D | 3.3 Million |
A Word Of Caution
The Ockham Research Team has placed an alert on this security because there have been significant developments associated with Humana Inc (HUM). Eventually, these externalities may have an impact on our valuation but these recent events have not yet been fully factored into our analysis.
Please take a moment to look at the RazorWire feed on the right hand side of the report. Each mention of Humana Inc on business television or influential blogs will be displayed to the right of the report. This should help bring you up to speed on any major issues they are facing right now.
Of course, you may proceed to review our research report for this security, but please be aware that our model may not reflect these significant factors surrounding this company as our data sources are still being updated. This alert shall remain in effect until the situation surrounding this security normalizes substantially.
Therefore, (and as always), check additional sources and available information regarding HUM before making an investment decision.
Ockham's Rating/Recommendation Summary
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HUM Revenue
For a long time, value investors have used the current share price relative to sales per share levels as an important valuation tool. We utilize a historical weighted average methodology that treats recent years more importantly in the calculation. When looking at HUM through this framework, we can see that our weighted average historical high and low Price to Sales per share ratios over the last 10 years are 0.49x and 0.23x respectively.
Utilizing this range we can see that HUM’s current Price to Sales per share ratio of 0.26x is significantly below its average levels historically. In fact, with a current price of $47.02, HUM is a full 29% below its average Price to Sales ratio at comparable sales levels. This is a rare occurrence and, when taken in context of the other areas of our analysis, can be a strong positive for our outlook for HUM.
HUM Cash Earnings
As the old saying goes, "Cash is King!" We look at reported Cash Earnings, but the main emphasis of our analysis involves stripping out non-cash events such as depreciation from our cash earnings analysis. This helps us view the cash flows more clearly. Nevertheless, an analysis of Cash Earnings (both reported and otherwise) is absolutely pivotal to assessing a company's value, and currently HUM is significantly below their historical average multiples of Cash Earnings, as calculated by our proprietary analysis. It is incredibly important to understand that for HUM, the current level of Cash Earnings compared to its historical levels helps identify where HUM is in relation to what the investing community was willing to pay for this level of Cash Earnings in the past. With a historical high Cash Earnings per share ratio of 20.89 and a historical low Cash Earnings per share ratio of 9.85, an investor can relate where value becomes optimal.
So what does "significantly below" mean when we talk about Price to Cash Earnings numbers for HUM? From the Ockham perspective, we are looking specifically at HUM to see if the market is recognizing the huge disparity between HUM's past stock price to Cash Earnings ratio to today's levels. At a difference of 47% below the average historical Price to Cash Earnings ratio, our view would be quite positive at this point. However, as with all metrics, we need to also take other factors into account when looking at HUM. While we view better Cash Earnings metrics as very important, if the market is slow to identify this value, or if Cash Earnings were to fall from these levels, we would become more neutral in our stance.
HUM Dividends
When determining a company's future prospects for success, Ockham Research sees analysis of dividend payments as a key additional factor. Even though it isn't imperative for HUM to shell out a dividend in order to receive a positive rating, it can be helpful to further our analysis. As far as our investing methodology goes, it is not necessary to pay a dividend in order to get a favorable rating, so as for right now HUM gets a neutral rating for the dividend portion of the model. As you can see, we are not receiving historical dividend information from our data provider on HUM at this time.
The Outlook for Emerging Markets and Humana Inc. Discussed on The Call
Humana Inc. and an emerging market growth strategy were discussed recently on HUM.
The Motley Fool CAPS crowd believes this stock will perform generally in line with the benchmark, or in other words the crowd is neutral. Based on our methodology, Humana Inc. should hold some appeal to value investors as we view it as Undervalued. We noticed recently that in comparison to all other stocks we analyze in the news; HUM has received less coverage from the financial media in business television and blogs.
“… It's the same size as HUMANA. So watch out for the china fund, etf with heavy put volume versus the call volume. Back to you. > > thanks, nesto. > > > january sales at the. …”
Mad Money: Discussion of HUM's Earnings
Any suprise in earnings can cause a major swing in stock prices, so we are always on the lookout for the freshest news available for earnings reports or expectations.
At present, Ockham has a valuation stance of Undervalued on HUM, as we could see significant price appreciation based on current fundamentals like cash earnings and revenue. When taking into account the amount of news coverage each stock normally sees as a percentage of the total, Humana Inc. has actually sunk a bit in comparison to the others. Our sentiment indicator, provided through the Motley Fool CAPS survey, suggests that investors are neutral overall towards HUM and think that it will generally perform in-line with the S&P 500.
“… HUMANA up 40%. Wellpoint up 46% from their october lows and this is what we're looking for from now on. Unless you think these stocked rally because health care reform seems to ... …”
Earnings News Regarding Humana Inc. Noted on Seeking Alpha Wall St Breakfast
Whenever a reliable source like Seeking Alpha Wall St Breakfast talks about earnings or news on earnings, we think it warrants bringing attention to it.
Ranking all stocks in terms of news coverage offers some interesting data. In the case of HUM, it is getting significantly more attention in recent news coverage than we are used to seeing. Based on our methodology, Humana Inc. should hold some appeal to value investors as we view it as Undervalued. The Motley Fool CAPS crowd believes this stock will perform generally in line with the benchmark, or in other words the crowd is neutral.
“… (PR) HUMANA (HUM): Q4 EPS of $1. 48 in-line. Revenue of $7. 6B (+2%) vs. $7. 8B. (PR) NiSource (NI): Q4 EPS of $0. 35 misses by $0. 01. Revenue of $1. 5B (-37%) vs. $1. ... …”
Holding HUM Stock? See What Is Being Discussed on Mad Money
The latest news from Mad Money on HUM is available through Ockham's news analytics platform RazorWire.
When looking at our entire coverage universe and ranking stocks by the attention they receive on RazorWire, it is clear that Humana Inc. has been talked about more than normal recently. Crowd sentiment is neutral from the millions of opinions submitted through Motley Fool CAPS, which suggests most investors on their platform believe Humana Inc. will perform just about the same as the index. We consider HUM as Undervalued at the current price of $48.80. According to our methodology, this stock has appreciation potential based on current fundamentals which only improves if earnings or revenue surprise.
“… On monday the obama health care obituary could be penned by HUMANA when it reports. The hmo that's the most illusive from obama care? …”
Power Lunch Has News on HUM
The latest news on Power Lunch in regards to HUM came through on RazorWire recently.
In comparison to the other stocks that we follow, Humana Inc. has seen more discussion in relation to its normal ranking among the group. Be aware that the news sources we track are focusing on this stock more often these days. Our sentiment indicator, provided through the Motley Fool CAPS survey, suggests that investors are neutral overall towards HUM and think that it will generally perform in-line with the S&P 500. At present, Ockham has a valuation stance of Undervalued on HUM, as we could see significant price appreciation based on current fundamentals like cash earnings and revenue.
“… HUMANA, steve, are you a buyer? > > you could see a spike higher but the overall market moves low somewhere drags us down as one. Long answer, no, I wouldn't be a buy. > > …”
A Discussion of HUM's CEO Occurred on Bulls & Bears
Keeping up with a CEO is one way that we try to better understand the direction of a company, and there was talk about HUM management on Bulls & Bears.
Based on our methodology, Humana Inc. should hold some appeal to value investors as we view it as Undervalued. The Motley Fool CAPS crowd believes this stock will perform generally in line with the benchmark, or in other words the crowd is neutral. Ranking all stocks in terms of news coverage offers some interesting data. In the case of HUM, it is getting significantly more attention in recent news coverage than we are used to seeing.
“… the ceo of HUMANA, one of the largest health-insurance companies, you are a great person to talk to considering all that is going on in washington. …”
Humana Inc. News is Being Covered Right Now on Mad Money
As always, the latest news on HUM is available to Ockham clients through RazorWire, and it was mentioned recently on Mad Money.
When taking into account the amount of news coverage each stock normally sees as a percentage of the total, Humana Inc. has actually sunk a bit in comparison to the others. Our sentiment indicator, provided through the Motley Fool CAPS survey, suggests that investors are neutral overall towards HUM and think that it will generally perform in-line with the S&P 500. At present, Ockham has a valuation stance of Undervalued on HUM, as we could see significant price appreciation based on current fundamentals like cash earnings and revenue.
“… United health, HUMANA, and rehab care. Huge gains, don't give them back. Stay with bristol-myers, cov, and wellpoint. They don't need health care reform and can do just fine ... …”
News Developing on Mad Money for HUM
Humana Inc. is one of the thousands of companies that Ockham has news analytics on, and it was recently discussed on Mad Money.
Based on our methodology, Humana Inc. should hold some appeal to value investors as we view it as Undervalued. We noticed recently that in comparison to all other stocks we analyze in the news; HUM has received less coverage from the financial media in business television and blogs. The Motley Fool CAPS crowd believes this stock will perform generally in line with the benchmark, or in other words the crowd is neutral.
“… Ring the register on u & h, HUMANA and rehab care. But if you want to stick with a group, you can own bristol-myers, and wellpoint as they look like they have room to run. …”
News on HUM From the Pundits on Mad Money
The latest news from business television and influential blogs is always available through Ockham's RazorWire, and this news is in relation to Humana Inc..
As we analyze the results from RazorWire, one thing we do is rank each stock in terms of amount of news coverage. Recently, HUM has been less covered in the news compared to the rest of our universe of stocks. We consider HUM as Undervalued at the current price of $51.20. According to our methodology, this stock has appreciation potential based on current fundamentals which only improves if earnings or revenue surprise. Crowd sentiment is neutral from the millions of opinions submitted through Motley Fool CAPS, which suggests most investors on their platform believe Humana Inc. will perform just about the same as the index.
“… And there's a second reason i'm focussed on selling HUMANA and rehab care. They have a lot of exposure to medicare, which will need to be cut thanks to our huge deficits. …”
HUM Gets Mentioned in the Financial Media
The latest news from Mad Money on HUM is available through Ockham's news analytics platform RazorWire.
Crowd sentiment is neutral from the millions of opinions submitted through Motley Fool CAPS, which suggests most investors on their platform believe Humana Inc. will perform just about the same as the index. As we analyze the results from RazorWire, one thing we do is rank each stock in terms of amount of news coverage. Recently, HUM has been less covered in the news compared to the rest of our universe of stocks. We consider HUM as Undervalued at the current price of $51.20. According to our methodology, this stock has appreciation potential based on current fundamentals which only improves if earnings or revenue surprise.
“… I'm telling you you have to take profits in HUMANA, in u & h, despite that good quarter yesterday, and rehab care. And i'm going to tell you why. …”