NYSE:AXP
$37.44
(2/9 2:29PM)
+1.8%
| Open | $37.27 |
Mkt Cap | $43.7 Billion |
| High | $37.84 |
52Wk High | $43.25 |
| Low | $37.02 |
52Wk Low | $9.71 |
| Volume | 7.6 Million |
Avg Vol 10D | 12.2 Million |
Ockham's Rating/Recommendation Summary
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AXP Revenue
As a value investing shop, we are interested in seeing how AXP's revenues measure up against past performances. One easily understandable way of doing that is to compare Price to Sales per share levels over a given time frame. Assuming it is available, Ockham prefers to look at ten years of history (for this stock there are 10 years of history available) and we weigh recent years more heavily. This allows us to find weighted average historical high and low Price to Sales ratios, which give us a better idea of the stock's current underlying value. Using this method, we have established a high range for Price to Sales of 2.27x and the low end of the range at 1.40x.
With respect to these historically rational metrics, notice that the current Price to Sales per share ratio for AXP of 1.68x is somewhat below its historical weighted average by 9%. Given this level of sales per share, we suggest a neutral share price forecast. To the extent there is a further drop in the Price to Sales ratio from current levels, which would occur through some combination of increased sales per share or a decline in share price, we would only become more positive about the Price to Sales ratio outlook.
AXP Cash Earnings
As a value investment framework, Ockham Research is similar to a private equity firm in terms of our valuation methods. We are always on the lookout for value in the form of sales and cash numbers. In the case of AXP, Ockham views their current Cash Earnings as significantly above its historical average multiple of Cash Earnings. Looking at the last 10 years we can get a good understanding of what investors have grown to expect from AXP. For example, AXP's Cash Earnings ratio per share has fluctuated between 12.31 and 23.64 over this historical timeframe. This range is based upon a proprietary weighted methodology at Ockham, but can clearly show an investor where AXP is with respect to prior business periods.
Therefore, at the current price of $37.85 and a Price to Cash Earnings ratio of 27.23, AXP is significantly overvalued. This diminishes the attractiveness of AXP until we see either a significant increase in cash earnings or a decline in price. A decline of the Price to Cash Earnings ratio of 51% is needed just to return to the historical cash earnings multiple.
AXP Dividends
When determining a company's future prospects for success, Ockham Research sees analysis of dividend payments as a key additional factor. Even though it isn't imperative for AXP to shell out a dividend in order to receive a positive rating, it can be helpful to further our analysis.
The estimated annual dividend for AXP is $0.72 producing a current dividend yield of 1.90%. Much like our evaluation of Sales and Cash Earnings per share, we review dividend yields from AXP against the historic high and low levels over all available dividend history. Because dividends are a decision made exclusively by management, we view a healthy and rising dividend as a sign of confidence and strength. The highest dividend yield from AXP over previous years was 7.42% while the lowest dividend yield was 0.64%. With that range in mind, AXP’s current dividend yield is a full 52.85% below its median dividend yield historically. This is a negative from our perspective.
American Express Company News Appeared on Countdown to the Closing Bell
News has broken via the television and viral blogs regarding AXP, so investors should take an interest in learning what was said.
Premium Content - please sign up for Ockham PREMIUM to gain full access and to see what Countdown to the Closing Bell said about AMERICAN EXPRESS COMPANY
Learn About RazorWire?AXP News Mentioned on Closing Bell Recently
Staying informed on the news is invaluable for investors, and RazorWire has captured a recently discussion on AXP from Closing Bell.
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Learn About RazorWire?The Latest News for AXP Was Just on Fox Business
American Express Company is one of the thousands of companies that Ockham has news analytics on, and it was recently discussed on Fox Business.
Premium Content - please sign up for Ockham PREMIUM to gain full access and to see what Fox Business said about AMERICAN EXPRESS COMPANY
Learn About RazorWire?Interested in AXP? See What the Pundits Said on Fox Business
American Express Company is one of the thousands of companies that Ockham has news analytics on, and it was recently discussed on Fox Business.
Premium Content - please sign up for Ockham PREMIUM to gain full access and to see what Fox Business said about AMERICAN EXPRESS COMPANY
Learn About RazorWire?AXP News Mentioned on Naked Capitalism Recently
The latest news from Naked Capitalism on AXP is available through Ockham's news analytics platform RazorWire.
Our sentiment indicator, provided through the Motley Fool CAPS survey, suggests that investors are neutral overall towards AXP and think that it will generally perform in-line with the S&P 500. In comparison to the other stocks that we follow, American Express Company has seen more discussion in relation to its normal ranking among the group. Be aware that the news sources we track are focusing on this stock more often these days. As of this week's report, we have an Overvalued valuation on AXP because the price has gotten too high to be justified by the fundamentals.
“… Two of the biggest players that focused on the small business market, Advanta and AMERICAN EXPRESS, have exited that business, and it is hardly a secret that other credit card ... …”
The Outlook for Emerging Markets and American Express Company Discussed on Power Lunch
News related to emerging markets affecting American Express Company today, and Power Lunch discussed some recent developments.
Crowd sentiment is neutral from the millions of opinions submitted through Motley Fool CAPS, which suggests most investors on their platform believe American Express Company will perform just about the same as the index. As we analyze the results from RazorWire, one thing we do is rank each stock in terms of amount of news coverage. Recently, AXP has been less covered in the news compared to the rest of our universe of stocks. At Ockham, we are not advising buying American Express Company at the current price level because according to our methodology it is not supported by the fundamentals.
“… Among attending, heads of AMERICAN EXPRESS, microsoft's steve ballmer and frederick smith and john chambers. Cisco, coincidentally, leading the few nasdaq stocks in the green ... …”
Notice a Discussion Covering AXP Appeared Recently in the Financial News
News has broken via the television and viral blogs regarding AXP, so investors should take an interest in learning what was said.
As of this week's report, we have an Overvalued valuation on AXP because the price has gotten too high to be justified by the fundamentals. Our sentiment indicator, provided through the Motley Fool CAPS survey, suggests that investors are neutral overall towards AXP and think that it will generally perform in-line with the S&P 500. When taking into account the amount of news coverage each stock normally sees as a percentage of the total, American Express Company has actually sunk a bit in comparison to the others.
“… In 1979, I was in New York with the AMERICAN EXPRESS Company and was in charge of strategic planning and acquisitions. We were having problems, which we now call market access ... …”
Check Out Naked Capitalism and News on AXP
News has broken via the television and viral blogs regarding AXP, so investors should take an interest in learning what was said.
As we analyze the results from RazorWire, one thing we do is rank each stock in terms of amount of news coverage. Recently, AXP has been less covered in the news compared to the rest of our universe of stocks. At Ockham, we are not advising buying American Express Company at the current price level because according to our methodology it is not supported by the fundamentals. Crowd sentiment is neutral from the millions of opinions submitted through Motley Fool CAPS, which suggests most investors on their platform believe American Express Company will perform just about the same as the index.
“… My boss, Jim Robinson, chief executive officer (CEO) of AMERICAN EXPRESS, asked me to start a new trade round as soon as possible. He asked, ‘How long will it take? …”
Too Much Debt? See What Fast Money Says About American Express Company
Leverage is not necessarily a bad thing for AXP or any other company, but staying informed on their debt is important. A recent story from Fast Money discusses AXP's debt.
As of this week's report, we have an Overvalued valuation on AXP because the price has gotten too high to be justified by the fundamentals. Our sentiment indicator, provided through the Motley Fool CAPS survey, suggests that investors are neutral overall towards AXP and think that it will generally perform in-line with the S&P 500. In comparison to the other stocks that we follow, American Express Company has seen more discussion in relation to its normal ranking among the group. Be aware that the news sources we track are focusing on this stock more often these days.
“… Upgrading AMERICAN EXPRESS, cap one to a buy rating believing recent pullbacks have created an opportunity. Gary, are you a buyer of this. > > …”
See More News on AXP from Power Lunch
American Express Company is one of the thousands of companies that Ockham has news analytics on, and it was recently discussed on Power Lunch.
At the current price, value investors will want to look elsewhere for a buying opportunity as this stock has heated up and is currently Overvalued. Ranking all stocks in terms of news coverage offers some interesting data. In the case of AXP, it is getting significantly more attention in recent news coverage than we are used to seeing. The Motley Fool CAPS crowd believes this stock will perform generally in line with the benchmark, or in other words the crowd is neutral.
“… Merck, general electric, jpmorgan, AMERICAN EXPRESS, financials, hope looms eternal. > > g. E. Leading the way up 3. 5%. …”