NYSE:JPM
$38.46
(2/9 2:42PM)
+2.0%
| Open | $38.19 |
Mkt Cap | $148.6 Billion |
| High | $38.7 |
52Wk High | $47.47 |
| Low | $37.84 |
52Wk Low | $14.96 |
| Volume | 34.9 Million |
Avg Vol 10D | 54.3 Million |
JPM Stock Evaluation
As of the time of this report, there has been relatively little movement in price for JPM over the last week. Furthermore, there has been no revision to earnings expectations or guidance. Given these factors as well as those contained in our complete analysis, we do not have enough of a catalyst to necessitate a rating change. For more detail please read the rest of our analysis of JPM's valuation.
Recommendation Summary
As frequent users of Ockham Research are aware, we strive to adhere to the principal of Ockham's Razor. This company ideal drives us to keep our stock analysis as simple as possible, but of course, no simpler than is necessary. It is in that vein that we focus much of our analysis on fundamental factors, peer analysis, and valuations versus historically normal ranges. However, we also apply standard deviation and volatility studies for each index and sector in order to understand more completely the risks associated with each market environment.
As the market has enjoyed a pretty nice run in the last 12 months, we are not too terribly concerned about the long term value being diminished by this run up. We are becoming more cautious in general, but we are holding this stock's rating steady because it has strong fundamentals that justify the price it is receiving in the open market right now, but it could be in jeopardy of getting downgraded if it becomes too expensive.
The price of JPM decreased by 1.64% since our last report on 01/30/2010 but the decrease is not substantial enough to sway our current outlook more positively.
As of this report, there have been no meaningful adjustments in cash earnings expectations or guidance in the last week.
JPM Revenue
Cash earnings is the most important factor in our analysis, but it goes without saying that if a company cannot produce sales then there is no ability to generate cash flow. By that logic we look very closely at revenue numbers as our second most important factor in valuing a company's stock. We have established reasonable Price to Sales per share ranges based on historical data of the last 10 years. For, JPM the high and low end of the Price to Sales per share ratios are 1.99x and 1.14x respectively.
Notice that JPM's current Price to Sales per share ratio is 1.31x, which is quite a bit below what we consider a normal Price to Sales ratio for this stock. Given normal conditions and a price of $38.30, JPM is 17% below where we would expect to see it. This will beneficially factor into our final analysis of JPM as it is not often that this stock sinks to these levels.
JPM Cash Earnings
As the old saying goes, "Cash is King!" We look at reported Cash Earnings, but the main emphasis of our analysis involves stripping out non-cash events such as depreciation from our cash earnings analysis. This helps us view the cash flows more clearly. Nevertheless, an analysis of Cash Earnings (both reported and otherwise) is absolutely pivotal to assessing a company's value, and currently JPM is below its historical average multiple of Cash Earnings. Looking at the last 10 years we can get a good understanding of what investors have grown to expect from JPM. For example, JPM's Cash Earnings ratio per share has fluctuated between 18.73 and 37.72 over this historical timeframe. This range is based upon a proprietary weighted methodology at Ockham, but can clearly show an investor where JPM is with respect to prior business periods.
So what does a Cash Earnings ratio below the historical norm mean for JPM? Generally, JPM's investors have paid slightly higher stock prices for this level of Cash Earnings, which bodes well as a return to historical norms is statistically likely. However, it is never a guarantee that history gives us proper direction, particularly in fluctuating market cycles. So by utilizing a long term view and incorporating other areas of analysis (like Sales, Dividends, and management analysis), each investor can gain a more complete view of JPM. Remember, that the average Cash Earnings level for JPM has been 28.22, so the current Cash Earnings level of 24.71 is a positive in our view, but by no means is it overwhelming.
JPM Dividends
A strong dividend payment history is looked upon as a favorable characteristic on a company’s future and potentially can receive a positive Ockham rating. That being said, we don't require dividend payments for company's whose management has elected to forgo them entirely.
When reviewing dividend yields for JPM, we compare the historic high and low levels over the past, which is similar to our evaluation of Sales and Cash Earnings per share. Paying a dividend is not necessary for any company, but changes in dividend often can lend clues as to the health of the business. A rising dividend is a strong sign for an established company, as it reflects management's confidence in the company. JPM’s estimated annual dividend is $0.20 resulting in a current dividend yield of 0.52%. The highest dividend yield from JPM over recent history was 8.90% while the lowest dividend yield was 0.42%. While it is quite common for a growth stock to pay no dividend at all, but for a mature company such as JPM that has a history of paying dividends it is disappointing to see their dividend yield drop so significantly. At this time, the current dividend yield is 88.84% below the median yield.
There is Significant News on JPM:Among the Twenty Most Active Stocks in the News
JPM has been one of the most active stocks in the news today, so investors in it will want to pay attention to what is happening.
As we analyze the results from RazorWire, one thing we do is rank each stock in terms of amount of news coverage. Recently, JPM has been less covered in the news compared to the rest of our universe of stocks. After factoring in the current fundamentals versus their historically normal ranges, we have established a Fairly Valued stance on JPM. Crowd sentiment is neutral from the millions of opinions submitted through Motley Fool CAPS, which suggests most investors on their platform believe JPMorgan Chase & Company will perform just about the same as the index.
“… And -- but the -- and then what we needed was we needed a buy that could do what JPMORGAN did with bear stearns, which was fill the capital hole and guarantee the trading during ... …”
Power Lunch Discussed Dividends and JPM
For income investors, dividend news is obviously important. JPM's dividends were discussed recently on Power Lunch.
As we analyze the results from RazorWire, one thing we do is rank each stock in terms of amount of news coverage. Recently, JPM has been less covered in the news compared to the rest of our universe of stocks. After factoring in the current fundamentals versus their historically normal ranges, we have established a Fairly Valued stance on JPM. Crowd sentiment is neutral from the millions of opinions submitted through Motley Fool CAPS, which suggests most investors on their platform believe JPMorgan Chase & Company will perform just about the same as the index.
“… GAN has had a much stronger dividend than goldman sachs and when you look at the financials they did lag and they've finally started to kick it back in and participate to the upside after the s&ps got back and pushed up toward the handle range and the second anything negative in the market comes up, you can see the volatility spike and you can see goldman sachs is the first to react and start to pullback. …”
JPM Having an Active Day in News, Now on Tech Trader Daily-Barron's
We are observing a lot of attention being paid to JPM in the news, so if you hold the stock you may want to take a look at what is going on.
The Motley Fool CAPS crowd believes this stock will perform generally in line with the benchmark, or in other words the crowd is neutral. JPMorgan Chase & Company receives our Fairly Valued rating in our latest report because the current price does not seem out of line with the fundamentals. We noticed recently that in comparison to all other stocks we analyze in the news; JPM has received less coverage from the financial media in business television and blogs.
“… tiple to 16x, a level low enough “given its …”
Zero Hedge: JPM is Among Most Active Stocks in the News Today
We are observing a lot of attention being paid to JPM in the news, so if you hold the stock you may want to take a look at what is going on.
JPMorgan Chase & Company receives our Fairly Valued rating in our latest report because the current price does not seem out of line with the fundamentals. The Motley Fool CAPS crowd believes this stock will perform generally in line with the benchmark, or in other words the crowd is neutral. We noticed recently that in comparison to all other stocks we analyze in the news; JPM has received less coverage from the financial media in business television and blogs.
“… Among others who have been short are the hedge funds at Goldman Sachs and JP MORGAN, according to financial sources say. Same thing happened to investment banks at the end of ... …”
Stocks to Watch: JPM Heavily Covered on Fast Money
JPM has been one of the most active stocks in the news today, so investors in it will want to pay attention to what is happening.
The Motley Fool CAPS crowd believes this stock will perform generally in line with the benchmark, or in other words the crowd is neutral. We noticed recently that in comparison to all other stocks we analyze in the news; JPM has received less coverage from the financial media in business television and blogs. JPMorgan Chase & Company receives our Fairly Valued rating in our latest report because the current price does not seem out of line with the fundamentals.
“… Look at goldman sachs and JPMORGAN and xlf and triple headed monster and you don't have any reason to have to force a trade. …”
Be Aware There is a Lot of News Today On JPM and This Instance Comes from Closing Bell
JPM has been one of the most active stocks in the news today, so investors in it will want to pay attention to what is happening.
As we analyze the results from RazorWire, one thing we do is rank each stock in terms of amount of news coverage. Recently, JPM has been less covered in the news compared to the rest of our universe of stocks. Crowd sentiment is neutral from the millions of opinions submitted through Motley Fool CAPS, which suggests most investors on their platform believe JPMorgan Chase & Company will perform just about the same as the index. After factoring in the current fundamentals versus their historically normal ranges, we have established a Fairly Valued stance on JPM.
“… JPMORGAN down, wells fargo down. Sharp move to the down side in the financials and a number of multinationals today. Even drug stocks have rolled over. They are lower. > > …”
Look Out for JPMorgan Chase & Company: Its Very Active in the News
JPM has been one of the most active stocks in the news today, so investors in it will want to pay attention to what is happening.
JPMorgan Chase & Company receives our Fairly Valued rating in our latest report because the current price does not seem out of line with the fundamentals. The Motley Fool CAPS crowd believes this stock will perform generally in line with the benchmark, or in other words the crowd is neutral. We noticed recently that in comparison to all other stocks we analyze in the news; JPM has received less coverage from the financial media in business television and blogs.
“… We're watching some of the major laggards, wells fargo, morgan stanley, JPMORGAN. We've been hearing from traders on the floor just so concerned other sovereign debt future ... …”
JPMorgan Chase & Company Talked About Near M&A Discussion on Naked Capitalism
News broke today regarding mergers and acquisitions and JPMorgan Chase & Company was discussed as well on Naked Capitalism. Other sources will be required to know exactly what the context was in the discussion.
As we analyze the results from RazorWire, one thing we do is rank each stock in terms of amount of news coverage. Recently, JPM has been less covered in the news compared to the rest of our universe of stocks. After factoring in the current fundamentals versus their historically normal ranges, we have established a Fairly Valued stance on JPM. Crowd sentiment is neutral from the millions of opinions submitted through Motley Fool CAPS, which suggests most investors on their platform believe JPMorgan Chase & Company will perform just about the same as the index.
“… 5 trillion a year earlier JPMORGAN CHASE: $1. 5 trillion, up from $795 billion a year ago (thanks in large part to its acquisition of Washington Mutual) CitiMortgage (a division ... …”
Stocks in the News: JPMorgan Chase & Company Among the Twenty Most Discussed Stocks
We are observing a lot of attention being paid to JPM in the news, so if you hold the stock you may want to take a look at what is going on.
JPMorgan Chase & Company receives our Fairly Valued rating in our latest report because the current price does not seem out of line with the fundamentals. The Motley Fool CAPS crowd believes this stock will perform generally in line with the benchmark, or in other words the crowd is neutral. We noticed recently that in comparison to all other stocks we analyze in the news; JPM has received less coverage from the financial media in business television and blogs.
“… Bank of america, wells fargo, goldman sachs, JPMORGAN and still down. Lot of concerns about for their financial regulation where changes might be coming. …”
More News Than Normal on JPM from Power Lunch
JPM has been one of the most active stocks in the news today, so investors in it will want to pay attention to what is happening.
The Ockham valuation currently has a Fairly Valued stance on JPM because it trades within the price range that we would expect given current market conditions and fundamentals. Our sentiment indicator, provided through the Motley Fool CAPS survey, suggests that investors are neutral overall towards JPM and think that it will generally perform in-line with the S&P 500. When taking into account the amount of news coverage each stock normally sees as a percentage of the total, JPMorgan Chase & Company has actually sunk a bit in comparison to the others.
“… According to "the new york times" JPMORGAN CHASE donating money now to the republican house and senate campaigns this year. …”