The Razor's Edge

2-Year Price History

A Word Of Caution

Avis Budget Group, Incorporated (CAR) has experienced a very significant loss in market value recently. Clearly this drop in price will have an impact on the valuation but the recent events that caused the drop may have not been fully factored into our analysis yet. When a stock loses value very quickly it could be a sign that there is a fear of bankruptcy.

Of course, you may proceed to review our research report for this security, but please be aware that our model may not reflect significant factors surrounding this company.

Therefore, (and as always), check additional sources and available information regarding CAR before making an investment decision.

Ockham's Rating

Rating Specific Information Withheld Premium Access Only

CAR Revenue

As a value investing shop, we are interested in seeing how CAR's revenues measure up against past performances. One easily understandable way of doing that is to compare Price to Sales per share levels over a given time frame. Assuming it is available, Ockham prefers to look at ten years of history (for this stock there are 10 years of history available) and we weigh recent years more heavily. This allows us to find weighted average historical high and low Price to Sales ratios, which give us a better idea of the stock's current underlying value. Using this method, we have established a high range for Price to Sales of 0.34x and the low end of the range at 0.15x.

With respect to these historically rational metrics, notice that the current Price to Sales per share ratio for CAR of 0.01x is well below its normal historic Price to Sales levels. At a price of $0.76, CAR is 96% below where we would expect to see it. Clearly, this stock looks undervalued compared to historical levels, at least on a Price to Sales basis. This will positively affect our analysis because it is rare to find a stock this far below historical norms, and we would expect some price appreciation to bring this metric back towards a more normal range.

CAR Cash Earnings

Looking at CAR specifically in their Cash Earnings capabilities, Ockham views CAR as significantly below its historical average multiple of Cash Earnings. Looking at the last 10 years we can get a good understanding of what investors have grown to expect from CAR. For example, CAR's Cash Earnings ratio per share has fluctuated between 0.73 and 1.75 over this historical timeframe. This range is based upon a proprietary weighted methodology at Ockham, but can clearly show an investor where CAR is with respect to prior business periods.

So with CAR's current price (latest close of $0.76) and most recent level of Cash Earnings reported, we see significant opportunity from a value perspective. At its current price level, CAR is 97% below its average level of Price to Cash Earnings on a historical basis. This means that investors were willing to pay for a much higher stock price than currently for the same level of Cash in the past, on a relative basis. There are a couple of important things to remember, however. First, value doesn't exist in a vacuum. So if the market doesn't recognize this value, even a great disparity in Price to Cash Earnings cannot force an immediate stock price reaction. Second, patience is key when looking at securities that have reached these levels of Price to Cash Earnings versus their historical norms. So be patient with CAR.

CAR Dividends

A positive Ockham rating does not require a company to pay out an inviting dividend or a dividend at all. However, we believe dividends provide a useful measure on a company's inherent expectations. Although CAR has paid a dividend in the past, they aren’t currently. Additionally, we like to look at several years of consistent dividends to add this to our analysis framework. Therefore, given this, the dividend is not currently figured into our analysis.