NYSE:HOG
$22.75
(2/9 2:45PM)
+2.3%
| Open | $22.61 |
Mkt Cap | $5.2 Billion |
| High | $23.02 |
52Wk High | $30.00 |
| Low | $22.33 |
52Wk Low | $7.99 |
| Volume | 1.9 Million |
Avg Vol 10D | 3.8 Million |
Ockham's Rating/Recommendation Summary
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HOG Revenue
As a value investing shop, we are interested in seeing how HOG's revenues measure up against past performances. One easily understandable way of doing that is to compare Price to Sales per share levels over a given time frame. Assuming it is available, Ockham prefers to look at ten years of history (for this stock there are 10 years of history available) and we weigh recent years more heavily. This allows us to find weighted average historical high and low Price to Sales ratios, which give us a better idea of the stock's current underlying value. Using this method, we have established a high range for Price to Sales of 2.95x and the low end of the range at 1.68x.
With respect to these historically rational metrics, notice that the current Price to Sales per share ratio for HOG of 1.09x is well below its normal historic Price to Sales levels. At a price of $22.57, HOG is 53% below where we would expect to see it. Clearly, this stock looks undervalued compared to historical levels, at least on a Price to Sales basis. This will positively affect our analysis because it is rare to find a stock this far below historical norms, and we would expect some price appreciation to bring this metric back towards a more normal range.
HOG Cash Earnings
Looking at HOG specifically in their Cash Earnings capabilities, Ockham views HOG as significantly below its historical average multiple of cash earnings as calculated by Ockham. Similar to our analysis of sales per share, Ockham looks at the last 10 years of cash earnings levels for HOG to identify where the current high and low price levels have been historically in relation to profit per share. Again, we utilize a weighted average methodology which relies more heavily on recent years of data. This weighted average framework provides us with an average high Price to Cash Earnings ratio per share of 16.60 and a 8.79 low over the same period.
So with HOG's current price (latest close of $22.57) and most recent level of Cash Earnings reported, we see significant opportunity from a value perspective. At its current price level, HOG is 20% below its average level of Price to Cash Earnings on a historical basis. This means that investors were willing to pay for a much higher stock price than currently for the same level of Cash in the past, on a relative basis. There are a couple of important things to remember, however. First, value doesn't exist in a vacuum. So if the market doesn't recognize this value, even a great disparity in Price to Cash Earnings cannot force an immediate stock price reaction. Second, patience is key when looking at securities that have reached these levels of Price to Cash Earnings versus their historical norms. So be patient with HOG.
HOG Dividends
When determining a company's future prospects for success, Ockham Research sees analysis of dividend payments as a key additional factor. Even though it isn't imperative for HOG to shell out a dividend in order to receive a positive rating, it can be helpful to further our analysis.
The estimated annual dividend for HOG is $0.40 producing a current dividend yield of 1.77%. Much like our evaluation of Sales and Cash Earnings per share, we review dividend yields from HOG against the historic high and low levels over all available dividend history. Because dividends are a decision made exclusively by management, we view a healthy and rising dividend as a sign of confidence and strength. The highest dividend yield from HOG over previous years was 16.15% while the lowest dividend yield was 0.20%. It is never a good sign for a company to pay significantly lower dividends, in this case 78.35% below the median yield. Although, dividends are a relatively small portion of our analysis framework, we still see this as a negative factor.
Fast Money: A View Towards HOG's Valuation
Fast Money covered valuation multiples and metrics related to Harley-Davidson, Incorporated. For a full fundamental valuation analysis on HOG visit the Ockham report.
As we analyze the results from RazorWire, one thing we do is rank each stock in terms of amount of news coverage. Recently, HOG has been less covered in the news compared to the rest of our universe of stocks. The crowd at The Motley Fool does not like HOG and believes that it will Underperform. After factoring in the current fundamentals versus their historically normal ranges, we have established a Fairly Valued stance on HOG. Please be aware that HOG is trading off $1.99 today, and is clearly being affected by the latest news.
“… got a drop here for hog, HARLEY DAVIDSON was down 6% on the week. > > higher delinquencies, near term, call 2010, a very challenging environment. …”
Stay Current on HOG's News on Countdown to the Closing Bell
News has broken via the television and viral blogs regarding HOG, so investors should take an interest in learning what was said.
The crowd at The Motley Fool does not like HOG and believes that it will Underperform. After factoring in the current fundamentals versus their historically normal ranges, we have established a Fairly Valued stance on HOG. But we have noted the recent price declines that make this stock more attractive to value minded investors. Please be aware that HOG is trading off $2.10 today, and is clearly being affected by the latest news. As we analyze the results from RazorWire, one thing we do is rank each stock in terms of amount of news coverage. Recently, HOG has been less covered in the news compared to the rest of our universe of stocks.
“… we start with HARLEY-DAVIDSON shares. The stock has been falling today. Basically reporting first quarterly loss since 1993. …”
Stay Current on HOG's News on The Opening Bell on Fox Business
Staying informed on the news is invaluable for investors, and RazorWire has captured a recently discussion on HOG from The Opening Bell on Fox Business.
The Ockham valuation currently has a Fairly Valued stance on HOG because it trades within the price range that we would expect given current market conditions and fundamentals. When taking into account the amount of news coverage each stock normally sees as a percentage of the total, Harley-Davidson, Incorporated has actually sunk a bit in comparison to the others. Interestingly, overall sentiment looks bearish according to the Motley Fool's CAPS survey, as most of their users see Harley-Davidson, Incorporated underperforming.
“… I know you're supposed to be looking at HARLEY DAVIDSON stock, very interesting, down 4% to $24 a share. I was in a conversation during the commercial break with our esteemed ... …”
HOG's Dividends Mentioned by Squawk On The Street
Dividends are a management decision and can be seen as a signal of strength or weakness depending on the latest news. RazorWire captured a discussion of HOG's dividends recently on Squawk On The Street.
The crowd at The Motley Fool does not like HOG and believes that it will Underperform. As we analyze the results from RazorWire, one thing we do is rank each stock in terms of amount of news coverage. Recently, HOG has been less covered in the news compared to the rest of our universe of stocks. After factoring in the current fundamentals versus their historically normal ranges, we have established a Fairly Valued stance on HOG.
“… We got HARLEY DAVIDSON having a tough morning because their orders dropped 53% compared to the same period last year. Going to be a tough time in 2010. …”
Imus In The Morning Discussed Dividends and HOG
For income investors, dividend news is obviously important. HOG's dividends were discussed recently on Imus In The Morning.
As we analyze the results from RazorWire, one thing we do is rank each stock in terms of amount of news coverage. Recently, HOG has been less covered in the news compared to the rest of our universe of stocks. After factoring in the current fundamentals versus their historically normal ranges, we have established a Fairly Valued stance on HOG. The crowd at The Motley Fool does not like HOG and believes that it will Underperform.
“… Capital, losses are expected to begin to decline this year, a ge also saying it could raise dividend this year after cutting during the financial crisis and looking at the stock ... …”
Imus In The Morning Has the Latest News on HOG
As always, the latest news on HOG is available to Ockham clients through RazorWire, and it was mentioned recently on Imus In The Morning.
As we analyze the results from RazorWire, one thing we do is rank each stock in terms of amount of news coverage. Recently, HOG has been less covered in the news compared to the rest of our universe of stocks. After factoring in the current fundamentals versus their historically normal ranges, we have established a Fairly Valued stance on HOG. The crowd at The Motley Fool does not like HOG and believes that it will Underperform.
“… And hog, HARLEY DAVIDSON losing 63 cents a share, that's nearly double the loss that analysts were predicting and sales were right in line, but harley says it's expecting 2010 to ... …”
News Developing on Fast Money for HOG
As always, the latest news on HOG is available to Ockham clients through RazorWire, and it was mentioned recently on Fast Money.
Ranking all stocks in terms of news coverage offers some interesting data. In the case of HOG, it is getting significantly more attention in recent news coverage than we are used to seeing. Harley-Davidson, Incorporated receives our Fairly Valued rating in our latest report because the current price does not seem out of line with the fundamentals. While bearish sentiment on a stock is not always a bad thing, it is something you need to be aware of. The Motley Fool survey of crowd sentiment shows that many investors believe this stock will underperform.
“… The economic impact is very unchartered and could probably ride my HARLEY-DAVIDSON with > > who makes tylenol, I think -- > > I can't do it. . …”
News Breaking on Harley-Davidson, Incorporated on Fox Business
The latest news from business television and influential blogs is always available through Ockham's RazorWire, and this news is in relation to Harley-Davidson, Incorporated.
Harley-Davidson, Incorporated receives our Fairly Valued rating in our latest report because the current price does not seem out of line with the fundamentals. We noticed recently that in comparison to all other stocks we analyze in the news; HOG has received less coverage from the financial media in business television and blogs. A significant sell off of $1.80 is underway right now, so investors in HOG should pay close attention to the news. While bearish sentiment on a stock is not always a bad thing, it is something you need to be aware of. The Motley Fool survey of crowd sentiment shows that many investors believe this stock will underperform.
“… Mostly to the down side and even HARLEY DAVIDSON down about 1% as well and another group of stocks we haven't focused on too much today, but the down volume. …”
Interested in HOG? See What the Pundits Said on Fox Business
The latest news from Fox Business on HOG is available through Ockham's news analytics platform RazorWire.
Harley-Davidson, Incorporated receives our Fairly Valued rating in our latest report because the current price does not seem out of line with the fundamentals. A significant sell off of $1.76 is underway right now, so investors in HOG should pay close attention to the news. Ranking all stocks in terms of news coverage offers some interesting data. In the case of HOG, it is getting significantly more attention in recent news coverage than we are used to seeing. While bearish sentiment on a stock is not always a bad thing, it is something you need to be aware of. The Motley Fool survey of crowd sentiment shows that many investors believe this stock will underperform.
“… J&j and pfizer, and also, watching some of the leisure stocks such as carnival cruise and royal caribbean and the guys who make HARLEY DAVIDSON and hotel stocks, and i'll get a ... …”
Harley-Davidson, Incorporated News is Being Covered Right Now on Countdown to the Closing Bell
The latest news from business television and influential blogs is always available through Ockham's RazorWire, and this news is in relation to Harley-Davidson, Incorporated.
The crowd at The Motley Fool does not like HOG and believes that it will Underperform. Please be aware that HOG is trading off $1.45 today, and is clearly being affected by the latest news. As we analyze the results from RazorWire, one thing we do is rank each stock in terms of amount of news coverage. Recently, HOG has been less covered in the news compared to the rest of our universe of stocks. After factoring in the current fundamentals versus their historically normal ranges, we have established a Fairly Valued stance on HOG.
“… HARLEY-DAVIDSON hogs, that is tomorrow, quadruple. It will be busy volume. But a lot of it is from citi. 1. 5 billion shares changing hands. About 131 points. …”