NYSE:TM
$74.48
(2/9 11:10AM)
+2.2%
| Open | $75 |
Mkt Cap | $114.2 Billion |
| High | $75.54 |
52Wk High | $91.97 |
| Low | $74.24 |
52Wk Low | $56.79 |
| Volume | 2.1 Million |
Avg Vol 10D | 5.7 Million |
Ockham's Rating/Recommendation Summary
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TM Revenue
As a value investing shop, we are interested in seeing how TM's revenues measure up against past performances. One easily understandable way of doing that is to compare Price to Sales per share levels over a given time frame. Assuming it is available, Ockham prefers to look at ten years of history (for this stock there are 10 years of history available) and we weigh recent years more heavily. This allows us to find weighted average historical high and low Price to Sales ratios, which give us a better idea of the stock's current underlying value. Using this method, we have established a high range for Price to Sales of 0.85x and the low end of the range at 0.57x.
With respect to these historically rational metrics, notice that the current Price to Sales per share ratio for TM of 0.68x is somewhat below its historical weighted average by 5%. Given this level of sales per share, we suggest a neutral share price forecast. To the extent there is a further drop in the Price to Sales ratio from current levels, which would occur through some combination of increased sales per share or a decline in share price, we would only become more positive about the Price to Sales ratio outlook.
TM Cash Earnings
As the old saying goes, "Cash is King!" We look at reported Cash Earnings, but the main emphasis of our analysis involves stripping out non-cash events such as depreciation from our cash earnings analysis. This helps us view the cash flows more clearly. Nevertheless, an analysis of Cash Earnings (both reported and otherwise) is absolutely pivotal to assessing a company's value, and currently TM is significantly above its historical average multiple of Cash Earnings. Looking at the last 10 years we can get a good understanding of what investors have grown to expect from TM. For example, TM's Cash Earnings ratio per share has fluctuated between 8.31 and 12.76 over this historical timeframe. This range is based upon a proprietary weighted methodology at Ockham, but can clearly show an investor where TM is with respect to prior business periods.
So what does this tell us about TM in particular? Basically, we would value the current level of Cash Earnings per share (which is at 19.66) as significantly overvalued. Just by looking at the last closing price of TM, which was $74.71, we can see that compared to the historical high Price to Cash Earnings levels we calculated, the market has already rewarded TM with a higher stock price. So basically, we don't view this level of Cash Earnings or stock price as compatible with a long term value at this point. Just remember, that does not mean that TM may not have other merits with which to find a good investment opportunity, it just means that we would prefer to see either an increase in Cash Earnings or a decrease in stock price before we would become bullish on this metric.
TM Dividends
A positive Ockham rating does not require a company to pay out an inviting dividend or a dividend at all. However, we believe dividends provide a useful measure of a company's inherent expectations.
Comparable to our analysis of Sales and Cash Earnings per share, we examine dividend yields from TM against the historic high and low levels over an available data range. Because TM has an established history of paying a dividend to shareholders, there is value in comparing recent dividends to historical dividends. In TM’s case, the estimated annual dividend is $1.45 producing a current dividend yield of 1.94%. The highest dividend yield from TM in recent history was 4.38% while the lowest dividend yield was 0.00%. TM is not making us feel all that confident when their current dividend yield is below the historical median by 11.42%.
Invested in TM? Turn on the TV, It's All Over the News and Squawk On The Street
If you own TM, then you need to get to a TV now. It has been mentioned in the news very frequently in the last hour.
Premium Content - please sign up for Ockham PREMIUM to gain full access and to see what Squawk On The Street said about TOYOTA MOTOR CORP. ADS
Learn About RazorWire?Squawk On The Street: An Extremely Hot News Day for Toyota Motor Corporation ADS Today
The newswires are burning up right now on Toyota Motor Corporation ADS, so check our RazorWire or turn on your TV to see why it is so active in the news.
Premium Content - please sign up for Ockham PREMIUM to gain full access and to see what Squawk On The Street said about TOYOTA MOTOR CORP. ADS
Learn About RazorWire?Volatility Alert: TM Blasting Across the Newswire on Fox Business
If you own TM, then you need to get to a TV now. It has been mentioned in the news very frequently in the last hour.
At the current price, value investors will want to look elsewhere for a buying opportunity as this stock has heated up and is currently Overvalued. We noticed recently that in comparison to all other stocks we analyze in the news; TM has received less coverage from the financial media in business television and blogs. While bearish sentiment on a stock is not always a bad thing, it is something you need to be aware of. The Motley Fool survey of crowd sentiment shows that many investors believe this stock will underperform.
“… the dow at 10,032 and as for TOYOTA there is a bounce back. We have all kinds of bad news about TOYOTA is spreading the problem with the lexus and the TOYOTA prius but the stock ... …”
Invested in TM? Turn on the TV, It's All Over the News and The Opening Bell on Fox Business
Be aware that something important has occurred for TM and investors interested in this stock should seek out information in any way possible.
Premium Content - please sign up for Ockham PREMIUM to gain full access and to see what The Opening Bell on Fox Business said about TOYOTA MOTOR CORP. ADS
Learn About RazorWire?Toyota Motor Corporation ADS Crosses Extremely Active News Threshold for the Day, Now on The Opening Bell on Fox Business
The newswires are burning up right now on Toyota Motor Corporation ADS, so check our RazorWire or turn on your TV to see why it is so active in the news.
Premium Content - please sign up for Ockham PREMIUM to gain full access and to see what The Opening Bell on Fox Business said about TOYOTA MOTOR CORP. ADS
Learn About RazorWire?Learn Why TM Is Being Discussed in the News than Almost Any Other Stock
Be aware that something important has occurred for TM and investors interested in this stock should seek out information in any way possible.
Premium Content - please sign up for Ockham PREMIUM to gain full access and to see what The Opening Bell on Fox Business said about TOYOTA MOTOR CORP. ADS
Learn About RazorWire?Volatility Alert: TM Blasting Across the Newswire on Squawk On The Street
If you own TM, then you need to get to a TV now. It has been mentioned in the news very frequently in the last hour.
Premium Content - please sign up for Ockham PREMIUM to gain full access and to see what Squawk On The Street said about TOYOTA MOTOR CORP. ADS
Learn About RazorWire?Did You See TM's CEO Toyoda on The Opening Bell on Fox Business?
Keeping up with a CEO is one way that we try to better understand the direction of a company, and there was talk about TM management on The Opening Bell on Fox Business.
Premium Content - please sign up for Ockham PREMIUM to gain full access and to see what The Opening Bell on Fox Business said about TOYOTA MOTOR CORP. ADS
Learn About RazorWire?The Opening Bell on Fox Business: An Extremely Hot News Day for Toyota Motor Corporation ADS Today
Be aware that something important has occurred for TM and investors interested in this stock should seek out information in any way possible.
Premium Content - please sign up for Ockham PREMIUM to gain full access and to see what The Opening Bell on Fox Business said about TOYOTA MOTOR CORP. ADS
Learn About RazorWire?TM Is Among the Five Most Talked About Stocks in the News Today
If you own TM, then you need to get to a TV now. It has been mentioned in the news very frequently in the last hour.
Premium Content - please sign up for Ockham PREMIUM to gain full access and to see what The Opening Bell on Fox Business said about TOYOTA MOTOR CORP. ADS
Learn About RazorWire?