REP Fundamental Research Investment Analysis, Repsol YPF SA

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Repsol YPF SA (REP)

The Razor's Edge

2-Year Price History

Recent Price
(1/5/2009)
$21.83
52-Week Price
$16.04 - $44.85
Market Capitalization
$26.7 Billion
Dividend Yield
0.00%
Most Recent Dividend
$0.78

About Repsol YPF SA

Repsol YPF SA is considered to operate in the Basic Materials sector. They specifically operate in the Major Integrated Oil/Gas business segment contained within the Energy industry.

The Company is integrated oil and Gas Company engaged in all aspects of the petroleum business, including exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas, transportation of petroleum products, petrochemicals, LPG and natural gas.

Ockham's Rating

Rating Specific Information Withheld Premium Access Only

REP Revenue

As we have often noted, in our valuation methodology, "Cash is King." Well, it goes without saying that if a company cannot produce sales then there is no ability to generate cash flow. By that logic we look very closely at revenue numbers as our second most important factor in valuing a company's stock. We have established reasonable Price to Sales per share ranges based on historical data of the last 10 years. For, REP the high and low end of the Price to Sales per share ratios are 0.62x and 0.44x respectively.

Notice that REP's current Price to Sales per share ratio is 0.35x, which is quite a bit below what we consider a normal Price to Sales ratio for this stock. Given normal conditions and a price of $22.14, REP is 34% below where we would expect to see it. This will beneficially factor into our final analysis of REP as it is not often that this stock sinks to these levels.

REP Cash Earnings

As a value investment framework, Ockham Research is similar to a private equity firm in terms of our valuation methods. We are always on the lookout for value in the form of sales and cash numbers. In the case of REP, Ockham views their current Cash Earnings as significantly below their historical average multiples of Cash Earnings, as calculated by our proprietary analysis. It is incredibly important to understand that for REP, the current level of Cash Earnings compared to its historical levels helps identify where REP is in relation to what the investing community was willing to pay for this level of Cash Earnings in the past. With a historical high Cash Earnings per share ratio of 5.29 and a historical low Cash Earnings per share ratio of 3.75, an investor can relate where value becomes optimal.

So what does "significantly below" mean when we talk about Price to Cash Earnings numbers for REP? From the Ockham perspective, we are looking specifically at REP to see if the market is recognizing the huge disparity between REP's past stock price to Cash Earnings ratio to today's levels. At a difference of 36% below the average historical Price to Cash Earnings ratio, our view would be quite positive at this point. However, as with all metrics, we need to also take other factors into account when looking at REP. While we view better Cash Earnings metrics as very important, if the market is slow to identify this value, or if Cash Earnings were to fall from these levels, we would become more neutral in our stance.

REP Dividends

While it is not necessary to pay an attractive dividend or a dividend at all, to receive a positive rating from Ockham, we view dividends as an additionally helpful measure in determining the future potential of any company. Although REP has paid a dividend in the past, they aren’t currently. Additionally, we like to look at several years of consistent dividends to add this to our analysis framework. Therefore, given this, the dividend is not currently figured into our analysis.

Peer Comparison

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Repsol YPF SA Industry Grouping

(1/5/2009)
Company Ticker Market Cap (Ml) Latest
Price
Price/Cash Earnings Price/Sales 5-Yr. Rev.
Growth Rate
5-Yr.
Avg. ROE.
Current 10-Yr. Range* Current 10-Yr. Range*
Peer Company Averages (not incuding REP) 4.70 2.76 » 11.63 4.44 1.17 » 19.41 31.06% 23.38%
*10 year range does not include current year values
Devon Energy Corp. DVN $31.3 Billion $70.98 3.47 2.75 » 11.05 1.87 1.44 » 14.34 21.36% 16.82%
Imperial Oil Limited IMO $31.1 Billion $35.71 8.50 5.00 » 17.40 15.27 0.60 » 30.21 18.66% 36.42%
Apache Corp. APA $27.8 Billion $83.05 3.40 2.83 » 7.34 1.71 1.79 » 16.28 31.23% 20.12%
Repsol YPF SA REP $26.7 Billion $21.83 2.90 2.40 » 6.28 0.35 0.43 » 3.10 14.70% 16.50%
Canadian Natural Resources LTD CNQ $24.9 Billion $46.11 3.33 1.70 » 11.02 1.45 1.40 » 14.92 37.24% 19.66%
XTO Energy, Inc. XTO $22.9 Billion $39.70 4.82 1.51 » 11.37 1.89 0.62 » 21.32 46.82% 23.88%
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Key Fundamentals

REP - Repsol YPF SA Fundamentals
Price (1/5/2009) $21.83
Volume (1/5/2009) 512,100
10 Day Average Volume 597,100
13 Week Price Range $16.04 - $24.82
52 Week Price Range $16.04 - $44.85
LTM Revenue $77.7 Billion
 
Shares Outstanding (12/2007) 1.2 Billion
Market Capitalization $26.7 Billion
Shares Held By Institutions 26.9 Million
Insitutional Holders 125
% Shares Held By Institutions 2.20%
Earnings Per Share (EPS) $3.81
P/E Ratio 4.80
Book Value Per Share $24.69
 
Gross Margin 32.10%
Quarterly Dividend 0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Beta 1.39
Fiscal Year Ends December