NYSE:CVX
$71.52
(2/9 12:51PM)
+2.0%
| Open | $70.89 |
Mkt Cap | $140.7 Billion |
| High | $72.03 |
52Wk High | $81.09 |
| Low | $70.24 |
52Wk Low | $56.12 |
| Volume | 7.3 Million |
Avg Vol 10D | 13.4 Million |
CVX Stock Evaluation
As of the time of this report, there has been relatively little movement in price for CVX over the last week. Furthermore, there has been no revision to earnings expectations or guidance. Given these factors as well as those contained in our complete analysis, we do not have enough of a catalyst to necessitate a rating change. For more detail please read the rest of our analysis of CVX's valuation.
Recommendation Summary
At Ockham Research, we are always interested in understanding a company from a valuation standpoint, but even the most ardent value investor understands that there is more to the picture than simply valuation. So, we also apply a volatility studies for both the index and individual sectors. We utilize these tools in order to get a more complete picture of the investing environment. So, while most of our report highlights current valuation versus historical norms as well as peer analysis, there is still more going on behind the scenes.
This week's rating remains unchanged from a week ago, as CVX's fundamentals have remained intact or even in some cases have improved. The market has not triggered any significant volatility alerts for the last year's returns, so we feel confident in comparing this stock to where it has stood historically. Please continue reading for a more thorough analysis of the company's fundamentals and other key data.
The price of CVX decreased by 1.30% since our last report on 01/30/2010 but the decrease is not substantial enough to sway our current outlook more positively.
As of this report, there have been no meaningful adjustments in cash earnings expectations or guidance in the last week.
CVX Revenue
Cash earnings is the most important factor in our analysis, but it goes without saying that if a company cannot produce sales then there is no ability to generate cash flow. By that logic we look very closely at revenue numbers as our second most important factor in valuing a company's stock. We have established reasonable Price to Sales per share ranges based on historical data of the last 10 years. For, CVX the high and low end of the Price to Sales per share ratios are 0.81x and 0.56x respectively.
Notice that CVX's current Price to Sales per share ratio is 0.85x, which is high enough compared with historical norms of CVX to cause some concern. The current Price to Sales per share is near the upper end of the historical range. In our eyes, this is a negative factor because it is more likely that it will return to the normal range than continue rising outside of the range. At current sales per share levels, we would need to see a decline in the Price to Sales ratio of 24% merely to return CVX to its historical average.
CVX Cash Earnings
Looking at CVX specifically in their Cash Earnings capabilities, Ockham views CVX as below their historical average multiples of Cash Earnings, as calculated by our proprietary analysis. It is incredibly important to understand that for CVX, the current level of Cash Earnings compared to its historical levels helps identify where CVX is in relation to what the investing community was willing to pay for this level of Cash Earnings in the past. With a historical high Cash Earnings per share ratio of 7.24 and a historical low Cash Earnings per share ratio of 4.97, an investor can relate where value becomes optimal.
With a historical average Cash Earnings ratio of 6.11, the current Cash Earnings ratio of 5.98 is a positive opportunity for value in the Ockham view. Naturally, we would love to see a deeper value opportunity for CVX, but to get there one of two things must occur (or both). Either the stock price must decline further to increase the long term buying opportunity, or the management at CVX needs to earn more cash. If either, or both, of these occur, then we could see a significant gap emerge between what investors were willing to pay for in the past, and where CVX is trading currently (latest close price of $71.18).
CVX Dividends
While it is not necessary to pay an attractive dividend or a dividend at all, to receive a positive rating from Ockham, we view dividends as an additionally helpful measure in determining the future potential of any company.
In CVX’s case, the estimated annual dividend is $2.72 resulting in a current dividend yield of 3.82%. Similar to our review of Sales and Cash Earnings per share, we evaluate dividend yields from CVX against the historic high and low levels over the past 10 years. The highest dividend yield from CVX over this period was 4.85% while the lowest dividend yield was 0.71% If you are looking for some “bang for your buck” then a dividend yield of 37.41% above the historical median should be enticing. CVX receives a positive boost in our view because as you know, equity at its core is simply a claim on future dividends.
CVX Gets Mentioned in the Financial Media
As always, the latest news on CVX is available to Ockham clients through RazorWire, and it was mentioned recently on Closing Bell.
The Motley Fool CAPS data suggests that investors believe Chevron Corporation will beat the market in the foreseeable future. After factoring in the current fundamentals versus their historically normal ranges, we have established a Fairly Valued stance on CVX. When looking at our entire coverage universe and ranking stocks by the attention they receive on RazorWire, it is clear that Chevron Corporation has been talked about more than normal recently.
“… CHEVRON, exxon and others. And utilities have been in an earnings context on pace for a 7% drop. Worst revenues and performers versus expectations overall. …”
WSJ Marketbeat Brings News Related to Chevron Corporation
Chevron Corporation is one of the thousands of companies that Ockham has news analytics on, and it was recently discussed on WSJ Marketbeat.
Investors are headed for the exit following today's news as the stock is trading down $3.88. Crowd sentiment is favorable on this stock, as measured by the Motley Fool CAPS survey. In comparison to the other stocks that we follow, Chevron Corporation has seen more discussion in relation to its normal ranking among the group. Be aware that the news sources we track are focusing on this stock more often these days. The Ockham valuation currently has a Fairly Valued stance on CVX because it trades within the price range that we would expect given current market conditions and fundamentals.
“… foreign buyers. General Electric’s 4.6 decline is weighing on the S&P and energy giants Exxon Mobil and CHEVRON are also …”
See Who is Talking About News from CVX on Power Lunch
News has broken via the television and viral blogs regarding CVX, so investors should take an interest in learning what was said.
A significant sell off of $3.79 is underway right now, so investors in CVX should pay close attention to the news. Ranking all stocks in terms of news coverage offers some interesting data. In the case of CVX, it is getting significantly more attention in recent news coverage than we are used to seeing. Chevron Corporation receives our Fairly Valued rating in our latest report because the current price does not seem out of line with the fundamentals. Crowd sentiment is leaning to the bearish side, according to the robust data set collected by the Motley Fool CAPS survey.
“… We saw CHEVRON move down. The energy complex has been weak all day today. How much of an unwind has to happen -- > > is the dollar ticking up because people are going into the ... …”
Squawk Box: Discussion of CVX's Earnings
In our methodology at Ockham we weight earnings performance heavily, so we always pay attention to earnings news coming from legitimate sources like Squawk Box.
As we analyze the results from RazorWire, one thing we do is rank each stock in terms of amount of news coverage. Recently, CVX has been less covered in the news compared to the rest of our universe of stocks. The Motley Fool CAPS data suggests that investors believe Chevron Corporation will beat the market in the foreseeable future. After factoring in the current fundamentals versus their historically normal ranges, we have established a Fairly Valued stance on CVX.
“… Now, if you look at what we see this week with the earnings, CHEVRON/exxon could not make money in the fourth quarter turning $70 oil and making a profit out of it. …”
Chevron Corporation News is Being Covered Right Now on WSJ Marketbeat
The latest news from business television and influential blogs is always available through Ockham's RazorWire, and this news is in relation to Chevron Corporation.
Crowd sentiment is favorable on this stock, as measured by the Motley Fool CAPS survey. The Ockham valuation currently has a Fairly Valued stance on CVX because it trades within the price range that we would expect given current market conditions and fundamentals. When taking into account the amount of news coverage each stock normally sees as a percentage of the total, Chevron Corporation has actually sunk a bit in comparison to the others.
“… ExxonMobil, Microsoft, P&G and Apple push the S&P around, whereas the Dow is more heavily influenced by IBM, 3M, CHEVRON and United Technologies. Is there a lesson in this? …”
Notice a Discussion Covering CVX Appeared Recently in the Financial News
News has broken via the television and viral blogs regarding CVX, so investors should take an interest in learning what was said.
The Ockham valuation currently has a Fairly Valued stance on CVX because it trades within the price range that we would expect given current market conditions and fundamentals. Crowd sentiment is favorable on this stock, as measured by the Motley Fool CAPS survey. When taking into account the amount of news coverage each stock normally sees as a percentage of the total, Chevron Corporation has actually sunk a bit in comparison to the others.
“… CHEVRON and Exxon are both down more than 2%. But the pain doesn’t end with materials and energy. The financials are getting clobbered, down 3. …”
Notice a Discussion Covering CVX Appeared Recently in the Financial News
The latest news from Countdown to the Closing Bell on CVX is available through Ockham's news analytics platform RazorWire.
The Ockham valuation currently has a Fairly Valued stance on CVX because it trades within the price range that we would expect given current market conditions and fundamentals. Crowd sentiment is favorable on this stock, as measured by the Motley Fool CAPS survey. When taking into account the amount of news coverage each stock normally sees as a percentage of the total, Chevron Corporation has actually sunk a bit in comparison to the others.
“… We have seen weakness across the board representing but drug stocks with merck, home depot, CHEVRON to the downside along with oil itself. CHEVRON is down 1. 5%. …”
CVX News Mentioned on The Call Recently
The latest news from The Call on CVX is available through Ockham's news analytics platform RazorWire.
The Ockham valuation currently has a Fairly Valued stance on CVX because it trades within the price range that we would expect given current market conditions and fundamentals. When taking into account the amount of news coverage each stock normally sees as a percentage of the total, Chevron Corporation has actually sunk a bit in comparison to the others. Crowd sentiment is favorable on this stock, as measured by the Motley Fool CAPS survey.
“… This is for three, exxon, CHEVRON and conoco phillips. This is similar to what we see with bp. When it comes to refining, they lost 189 million this quarter, $204 million this ... …”
CVX in Developing Markets on Squawk On The Street
There is no doubt that the emerging markets are where the growth is right now. The latest news mention of CVX on Squawk On The Street was in relation to emerging markets.
As we analyze the results from RazorWire, one thing we do is rank each stock in terms of amount of news coverage. Recently, CVX has been less covered in the news compared to the rest of our universe of stocks. After factoring in the current fundamentals versus their historically normal ranges, we have established a Fairly Valued stance on CVX. The Motley Fool CAPS data suggests that investors believe Chevron Corporation will beat the market in the foreseeable future.
“… kicked CHEVRON last week. Finally, dow chemical, 18 cents as we look at 11. Some of these emerging markets, michelle, beginning to show some signs of real growth and we already ... …”
CVX Profits on the Mind of Closing Bell
In our methodology at Ockham we weight earnings performance heavily, so we always pay attention to earnings news coming from legitimate sources like Closing Bell.
Chevron Corporation receives our Fairly Valued rating in our latest report because the current price does not seem out of line with the fundamentals. We noticed recently that in comparison to all other stocks we analyze in the news; CVX has received less coverage from the financial media in business television and blogs. Crowd sentiment is leaning to the bearish side, according to the robust data set collected by the Motley Fool CAPS survey.
“… Take a look at some stories today from some big dow components and CHEVRON's a good one to look at because exxonmobil will report earnings next week. Closely watched. …”