STOSY Fundamental Research Investment Analysis, Santos Ltd ADR

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Santos Ltd ADR (STOSY)

The Razor's Edge

2-Year Price History

Recent Price
(1/5/2009)
$44.20
52-Week Price
$23.34 - $84.80
Market Capitalization
$6.6 Billion
Dividend Yield
4.70%
Most Recent Dividend
$1.35

About Santos Ltd ADR

Santos Ltd ADR is considered to operate in the Basic Materials sector. They specifically operate in the Independent Oil & Gas business segment contained within the Energy industry.

An Australian energy company engaged in oil and gas exploration and production. The core of company's business is a majority working interest in the Cooper/Eromanga Basins oil and gas fields located in central Australia.

Ockham's Rating

Rating Specific Information Withheld Premium Access Only

STOSY Revenue

As a value investing shop, we are interested in seeing how STOSY's revenues measure up against past performances. One easily understandable way of doing that is to compare Price to Sales per share levels over a given time frame. Assuming it is available, Ockham prefers to look at ten years of history (for this stock there are 10 years of history available) and we weigh recent years more heavily. This allows us to find weighted average historical high and low Price to Sales ratios, which give us a better idea of the stock's current underlying value. Using this method, we have established a high range for Price to Sales of 3.25x and the low end of the range at 1.92x.

With respect to these historically rational metrics, notice that the current Price to Sales per share ratio for STOSY of 2.64x is slightly above its historical average. This level of Price to Sales gives us a fairly neutral position on the shares. We would like to see a drop in the Price to Sales ratio of 1% given current sales figures before we would become more positive on a Price to Sales basis. Such a drop would put Price to Sales per share in line with STOSY's weighted historical average.

STOSY Cash Earnings

Looking at STOSY specifically in their Cash Earnings capabilities, Ockham views STOSY as below its historical average multiple of Cash Earnings. Looking at the last 10 years we can get a good understanding of what investors have grown to expect from STOSY. For example, STOSY's Cash Earnings ratio per share has fluctuated between 3.60 and 6.11 over this historical timeframe. This range is based upon a proprietary weighted methodology at Ockham, but can clearly show an investor where STOSY is with respect to prior business periods.

So what does a Cash Earnings ratio below the historical norm mean for STOSY? Generally, STOSY's investors have paid slightly higher stock prices for this level of Cash Earnings, which bodes well as a return to historical norms is statistically likely. However, it is never a guarantee that history gives us proper direction, particularly in fluctuating market cycles. So by utilizing a long term view and incorporating other areas of analysis (like Sales, Dividends, and management analysis), each investor can gain a more complete view of STOSY. Remember, that the average Cash Earnings level for STOSY has been 4.86, so the current Cash Earnings level of 4.48 is a positive in our view, but by no means is it overwhelming.

STOSY Dividends

A positive Ockham rating does not require a company to pay out an inviting dividend or a dividend at all. However, we believe dividends provide a useful measure on a company's inherent expectations.

Comparable to our analysis of Sales and Cash Earnings per share, we examine dividend yields from STOSY against the historic high and low levels over an available data range. Because STOSY has an established history of paying a dividend to shareholders, there is value in comparing recent dividends to historical dividends. In STOSY’s case, the estimated annual dividend is $2.07 producing a current dividend yield of 4.89%. The highest dividend yield from STOSY in recent history was 12.30% while the lowest dividend yield was 2.33%. It is never a good sign for a company to pay significantly lower dividends, in this case 33.15% below the median yield. Although, dividends are a relatively small portion of our analysis framework, we still see this as a negative factor.

Peer Comparison

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Santos Ltd ADR Industry Grouping

(1/5/2009)
Company Ticker Market Cap (Ml) Latest
Price
Price/Cash Earnings Price/Sales 5-Yr. Rev.
Growth Rate
5-Yr.
Avg. ROE.
Current 10-Yr. Range* Current 10-Yr. Range*
Peer Company Averages (not incuding STOSY) 4.64 3.96 » 204.97 1.68 1.30 » 18.17 16.47% 14.37%
*10 year range does not include current year values
Santos Ltd ADR STOSY $6.6 Billion $44.20 4.48 2.82 » 8.05 2.64 1.66 » 16.25 21.05% 17.58%
Noble Corp. NE $6.5 Billion $24.73 2.76 4.57 » 26.00 1.49 4.12 » 28.47 24.88% 15.06%
Questar Corp. STR $6.3 Billion $36.50 5.23 3.61 » 13.16 1.68 0.87 » 13.91 17.83% 18.18%
El Paso Corp. EP $6.2 Billion $8.81 2.42 4.17 » 940.07 0.97 0.32 » 12.26 -17.54% 7.48%
Range Resources Corp. RRC $6.1 Billion $39.06 8.30 0.93 » 16.85 3.81 0.37 » 28.98 34.66% 12.62%
Smith International, Inc. SII $5.9 Billion $26.81 4.51 6.50 » 28.75 0.44 0.81 » 7.26 22.55% 18.50%
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Key Fundamentals

STOSY - Santos Ltd ADR Fundamentals
Price (1/5/2009) $44.20
Volume (1/5/2009) 14,100
10 Day Average Volume 4,800
13 Week Price Range $23.34 - $44.25
52 Week Price Range $23.34 - $84.80
LTM Revenue $2.4 Billion
 
Shares Outstanding (12/2007) 149.6 Million
Market Capitalization $6.6 Billion
Shares Held By Institutions 462,422
Insitutional Holders 33
% Shares Held By Institutions 0.30%
Earnings Per Share (EPS) $2.38
P/E Ratio 26.50
Book Value Per Share $21.56
 
Gross Margin 66.50%
Quarterly Dividend 2.07
Dividend Yield 4.70%
Beta 1.42
Fiscal Year Ends December