The Razor's Edge

2-Year Price History

A Word Of Caution

Newfield Exploration Company (NFX) has experienced a very significant loss in market value recently. Clearly this drop in price will have an impact on the valuation but the recent events that caused the drop may have not been fully factored into our analysis yet. When a stock loses value very quickly it could be a sign that there is a fear of bankruptcy.

Of course, you may proceed to review our research report for this security, but please be aware that our model may not reflect significant factors surrounding this company.

Therefore, (and as always), check additional sources and available information regarding NFX before making an investment decision.

Ockham's Rating

Rating Specific Information Withheld Premium Access Only

NFX Revenue

As we have often noted, in our valuation methodology, "Cash is King." Well, it goes without saying that if a company cannot produce sales then there is no ability to generate cash flow. By that logic we look very closely at revenue numbers as our second most important factor in valuing a company's stock. We have established reasonable Price to Sales per share ranges based on historical data of the last 10 years. For, NFX the high and low end of the Price to Sales per share ratios are 3.63x and 2.31x respectively.

Notice that NFX's current Price to Sales per share ratio is 1.01x, which is quite a bit below what we consider a normal Price to Sales ratio for this stock. Given normal conditions and a price of $21.11, NFX is 67% below where we would expect to see it. This will beneficially factor into our final analysis of NFX as it is not often that this stock sinks to these levels.

NFX Cash Earnings

As a value investment framework, Ockham Research is similar to a private equity firm in terms of our valuation methods. We are always on the lookout for value in the form of sales and cash numbers. In the case of NFX, Ockham views their current Cash Earnings as significantly below their historical average multiples of Cash Earnings, as calculated by our proprietary analysis. It is incredibly important to understand that for NFX, the current level of Cash Earnings compared to its historical levels helps identify where NFX is in relation to what the investing community was willing to pay for this level of Cash Earnings in the past. With a historical high Cash Earnings per share ratio of 6.17 and a historical low Cash Earnings per share ratio of 3.91, an investor can relate where value becomes optimal.

So what does "significantly below" mean when we talk about Price to Cash Earnings numbers for NFX? From the Ockham perspective, we are looking specifically at NFX to see if the market is recognizing the huge disparity between NFX's past stock price to Cash Earnings ratio to today's levels. At a difference of 61% below the average historical Price to Cash Earnings ratio, our view would be quite positive at this point. However, as with all metrics, we need to also take other factors into account when looking at NFX. While we view better Cash Earnings metrics as very important, if the market is slow to identify this value, or if Cash Earnings were to fall from these levels, we would become more neutral in our stance.

NFX Dividends

While it is not necessary to pay an attractive dividend or a dividend at all, to receive a positive rating from Ockham, we view dividends as an additionally helpful measure in determining the future potential of any company. NFX is not paying a dividend at this time, nor do they have a history of paying a dividend for the last 10 years plus. Therefore, we are not utilizing the dividends portion in our study. If NFX initiates paying a dividend, we will begin to factor this into the Ockham approach.