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- Oppenheimer: Stock Sales Buoy Investment Banksby Ockham Research Staff on 7/2/2009
According to Oppenheimer (OPY) bank analyst Chris Kotowski, who took over when famed analyst Meredith Whitney started her own firm, companies selling stock to raise capital will be a boon to investment banks in the second quarter. Kotowski’s estimates that U.S. firms sold about $122.6 billion worth of stock in the quarter, about 9 times greater than the previous quarter and twice the quarterly average since 2005. Obviously, this is great news for investment banks as the fees associated with these secondary offerings will boost investment banking revenue beyond where it was in the first quarter. His projections were the subject of Bloomberg’s Chart of the Day:
We have noted in previous posts that the rally in equity markets provided the perfect opportunity for companies lacking capital to strengthen their balance sheets by offering shares to the market. Investors seemed to have a bottomless appetite for the additional shares, as the announced secondary offerings were coming in fast and furious in May. Perhaps some investors were following the logic of Jim Cramer, who advised investors to buy on the dips that follow these offerings because the company would be better capitalized. Not to mention Cramer is bullish on the market in general right now. Even investment banks themselves were keen on the idea of secondary offerings as Goldman Sachs (GS) and JP Morgan (JPM) were among the companies that tapped the well in the second quarter.
This new found growth in investment banks’ revenue is also being spread around a smaller number of firms after the attrition in the industry that has occurred with the fall of Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns. No doubt, this is one of the reasons that Kotowski is bullish on many investment banks. At Ockham, our methodology is much more cautious in regards to many of these financial firms because there stocks have advanced, and often doubled or more, well ahead of a corresponding fundamental improvement. Reports like this suggest that the fundamental strength is beginning to return, but these stocks do not fit our value investing philosophy at current price levels.
- Study of Sepracor’s Depression Drug Has Investors Gloomyby Ockham Research Staff on 7/2/2009Drug companies can be very risky, but with Sepracor trading only slightly above its 52-week low, the market has priced in a lot of bad news. Coming into today, the most conservative of analysts' estimates called for profit of $2.23 for 2009, the stock is only trading at a multiple of only 6.5.
- MFA Financial: Raising an Already Impressive Dividendby Ockham Research Staff on 7/1/2009This is an interesting stock because on paper it looks very sexy, but we are skeptical why it continues to trade at such a low valuation. It must be that the company is simply too risky for most investors. If housing does take another downturn, Fannie and Freddie may be there to help MFA out, but who wants to bank on that?
- Amazon’s Cloud: A SaaS Solutionby Ockham Research Staff on 7/1/2009Amazon's Web Services is still pretty small, but like most SaaS products right now, the potential for this sort of on demand services is immense. Not only is Amazon providing a SaaS solution through its cloud, it is helping enable other SaaS providers in the process. If Amazon is the bridge by which some of these burgeoning SaaS companies can get off the ground they can expect revenue to grow as their clients do.
- Apollo Group: Industry Bellwether Continues Exceptional Growthby Ockham Research Staff on 6/30/2009Fundamentally speaking, it is hard to ignore the strength of APOL right now. Unemployment nearing 10% nationally has helped increase degree program enrollment by 22% year over year. Many believe that the economy is in the process of recovery, but it is also true that unemployment is a lagging indicator.
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